There are 11 games on the MLB schedule for Thursday, August 3, and our betting experts have found the best value on the board.
We've compiled today's best MLB bets and are targeting totals in both Phillies vs. Marlins and Pirates vs. Brewers.
Today's MLB picks feature both an over and an under, so be sure to continue reading as the best MLB bets for Thursday, August 3 are below.
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs. Marlins
Thursday, August 3 12:10 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Under 8.5 (-115)  |
Both the Phillies are Marlins are battling for postseason berths, so there's plenty on the line Thursday afternoon in Miami.
The Phillies rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ over the past two months. There are several above-average hitters in the lineup, but nobody has superstar numbers.
Additionally, the bullpen, when healthy, is one of the league's best.
Michael Lorenzen boosted his trade value right before the deadline with three stellar, scoreless outings against the A's, Mariners and Royals. He threw 18 2/3 innings of eight-hit ball with 14 strikeouts and six walks during the stretch.
Lorenzen is having his best season in years. He's significantly cut his walk rate and has a 3.58 ERA, but his 4.07 xERA suggests regression may come — just hopefully not today.
The Marlins have the second-most hits in the league (972), but the 26th-most runs. They're also second-to-last in ISO (.134). Miami added some offense at the deadline and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back, but we'll have to see if the offense starts piling up runs at any point.
The sample size is obviously small, but Johnny Cueto has 13 strikeouts to two walks over his past two starts and his fastball velocity is up a tick since his return.
These are two below-average offenses over the past month, and their numbers get worse against right-handed pitching.
We can also bank on run prevention in the later innings as both teams boast solid bullpens that have been elite at times this season.
The key will be the starting pitchers playing up their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.
Cueto needs to have success with his fastball, while Lorenzen needs to stay in the strike zone and avoid hard-hit balls.
These are two fastball pitchers going up against poor fastball-hitting lineups. The Marlins and Phillies are both bottom-five lineups against four-seamers by xwOBA this year, so let's target the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 |
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Pirates vs. Brewers
Thursday, August 3 7:15 p.m. ET Fox |
First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-118)  |
Once upon a time, Mitch Keller looked like a sneaky good NL Cy Young candidate. I had a long number on him and everything.
Well, I'm now out on Keller.
Yes, he bounced back a bit in his most recent start against the Phillies, striking out eight and giving up two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings, but he's been giving up far too much hard contact over the past month or two.
The Brewers are a below-average and split-neutral offense, but I trust them a bit more after they made some low-key decent pickups at the deadline in Carlos Santana and Mark Canha.
Adrian Houser is a low-ceiling, back-end starter, who randomly popped two starts ago with 10 strikeouts against the Braves.
For the most part, however, he doesn't miss nearly enough bats to take advantage of the free-swinging, strikeout-happy Pirates. Houser also works in the zone enough that I anticipate contact from all the youngsters Pittsburgh is employing down the stretch.
I'll take a stab at the full-game over 8.5, but am mostly betting against these two pitchers with a bet on the first five innings over 4.5. I like that at -120 or better.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 Runs | Play to -120 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
