Saturday represents the first full day of the Major League Baseball season as all 30 teams are scheduled to be in action.
The games get started with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch between the White Sox and Tigers and roll on throughout the night until a 9:07 p.m. ET first pitch between the Astros and Angels.
Our analysts have picks throughout the day, including the aforementioned two games, and five picks in all. The theme of the day is totals, with four opinions on over/unders.
Here are our five best bets from Saturday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 9:07 p.m. ET | |
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Nick Shlain: Casey Mize doesn't miss many bats. His 20% strikeout percentage last year was fairly pedestrian. When hitters make contact against him, the ball tends to fly.
In his last start of the spring Mize allowed three home runs plus another fly ball to the warning track. Last season, Mize allowed just a .116 isolated-slugging percentage in 348 plate appearances to right-handed batters, but that number climbed to .272 in 348 plate appearances against left-handed batters.
Gavin Sheets, a lefty, had a .289 isolated-slugging percentage in 168 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers last year.
If Sheets is in the lineup he has as good a chance as anyone in the Chicago lineup of leaving the yard Saturday afternoon. There's certainly a lot of value to be had at +650.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Kenny Ducey: OK, so the 2021 season wasn’t so kind to Justin Steele. The 26-year-old lefty pitched to a 4.26 ERA, and he was much worse as a starter than a reliever. Still, we only have one season (which saw him throw 57 innings) to go off, and the former fifth-round pick did have a solid track record in the minor leagues, posting a 3.44 ERA.
On top of that, there were some positives to take from last season. Steele ranked in the 78th percentile in hard hit balls and was very good at limiting catastrophic contact even if he was merely average in the strikeout and walk departments.
I say all of this because I don’t trust a Brewers offense which looked flat Thursday and carries a large number of left-handed hitters to thrive on Saturday. On the other side of the coin, I certainly don’t expect the Cubs — who have three or maybe four major-league quality hitters — to have success against Brandon Woodruff, who had an insane 0.64 ERA against Chicago last year in five starts.
With Steele helping us out, I’ll take the under here — and I feel good about it.
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Jules Posner: The focal point of this match up will be Marlins starter Pablo Lopez.
Lopez is a great pitcher, but he is almost a full run worse on the road. He's squaring off against last year's best home offense vs. RHP in the Giants. The Giants also were also the best offense vs. RHP at home in day games.
On the other side, Carlos Rodon is set to make his San Francisco Giant debut on the heels of a dominant spring. Rodon dealt with some arm fatigue toward the end of the 2021 season, so he, more than other starters, may be on some restrictions in his first start.
The Giants made two crucial errors in Friday's game that contributed to the over cashing in and against a RH starting pitcher, the Giants will most likely have the same defense going in Game 2.
The over is at 7.5 runs and BetMGM has it at -105. It seems like it's still a safe play even at 8.5 runs or to the -120 threshold. Day baseball by the bay should make for some scoring.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Doug Ziefel: Historically, Coors Field has been a pitcher's nightmare, and anyone on the Rockies staff has been pegged as a pitcher to avoid as they are a victim of this circumstance. Finally, however, German Marquez has seemed to figure out his unfriendly confines.
Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA at home and held his opposition to a .278 wOBA. That is a drastic improvement from any year prior, as his ERA was nearly two full runs higher, and his previous wOBA was .330.
On top of his tremendous numbers at Coors, Marquez has also faired well against this daunting Dodgers lineup. Through 161 combined plate appearances, the current Dodgers have hit just .239 against Marquez and have only mustered 10 extra-base hits.
Speaking of figuring things out, Tony Gonsolin has found his role on this Dodgers team. Gonsolin is essentially a long-relief opener. In 2021, he averaged only 4 1/3 innings per start. However, he's been very effective against the Rockies.
His sample size is small, only 34 Colorado batters faced, but Statcast expected stats tell of future results. The Rockies only had a .230 xBa and .294 xwOBA against Gonsolin.
Marquez and Gonsolin should combine to keep the bats quiet through the early going and give us plenty of room on the full game number. The first five-under is also worth a look if you can find a 5.5 or 6.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
| 9:07 p.m. ET |
DJ James: The market seems doesn't seem entirely convinced in the healthy returns to form of a couple of erstwhile aces, Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard.
Sure, Houston was the best team in the MLB versus right-handers in 2021. They held a 116 wRC+, but they also replaced Carlos Correa with Jeremy Peña.
The Angels are getting a lot of love this season. A fully healthy Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will help with their success. However, Rendon has a bit more trouble in his career against righties (124 wRC+ vs. 137 wRC+). Those are still phenomenal numbers, but they contribute to the margins in this game, especially against Verlander.
The rest of the Angels lineup held a 91 wRC+, or nine percent below-average offensively. With Verlander on the hill, the bottom half of the Angel lineup will have trouble.
In 2019, Syndergaard managed a 1.22 WHIP when facing righties. Verlander’s was 0.81.
The bullpens should both be fine, after these two should go five-ish innings each. Take the under. Runs will be at a premium.
