With all 30 MLB teams in action on Sunday, our MLB analysts have found four best bets they love. They have identified two totals, one runline bet and one underdog on the moneyline. Check out their analysis and picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Tony Sartori: I believe we are getting great value on the over in this game as the two listed starting pitchers have good surface-level numbers this season. That being said, they have both struggled in their careers when facing the opposing lineup.
Over seven career starts against the Braves, Joe Musgrove possesses a 4.50 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP. The total runs scored have gone over 8.5 in five of those seven starts. Through 87 career plate appearances against Musgrove, the Braves roster boasts a .299 BA, .545 SLG and .391 wOBA.
Following Musgrove is a very poor bullpen which could help push this game over the total. San Diego’s relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA and 27th in FIP.
Meanwhile, this pitching staff should get good run support as the Padres are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Wright. Through 31 career plate appearances against Wright, the Padres roster boasts a .323 BA, .613 SLG and .392 wOBA.
The Atlanta Braves also enter this matchup amid a streak of high-scoring games as there have been nine or more total runs scored in seven of their past 10 contests.
Weather should not be a factor in this contest. There is supposed to be no rain and light (3-5 mph) winds. If this total jumps to nine before first pitch, I would pass.
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
Jules Posner: If both Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña are out again for the Astros, that could make their runline a little bit less desirable. However it’s hard to back the Nationals at all considering the pitching matchup and their struggles at home offensively.
Justin Verlander has been an incredible story this season as he has posted ridiculous road numbers. He’s sporting a 0.64 ERA and a 2.24 FIP over 28 innings on the road this season. Additionally, he’s facing the second-worst offense in MLB at home against right-handed pitchers in team wRC+ over the past three weeks.
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Nationals, and it’s been tough sledding for him over the past three…years. He has also struggled at home this season to the tune of a 5.94 ERA, but his 3.73 FIP at home suggests he may be experiencing some bad luck.
Even with two big bats missing from the lineup, this might have been a rest day for some of the regulars anyway, and the Astros and Nationals both seem to be on opposing sides of averages playing out. Stick with the Astros runline at -1.5 on DraftKings (-110) here because it’s the best value, and the data is pointing in that direction.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets
Nicholas Martin: Neither of these starting pitchers are ones I expect to be overly dominant down the stretch of this season, and an over/under of seven is certainly giving a lot of respect to their current numbers and reputations.
There’s a strong chance that if we saw this exact matchup in two months, the line would be set at eight. Therefore, we have an edge backing the over at this low number.
These teams may not be offensive powerhouses, but both are competent enough that such a low total — in a game featuring two pitchers who will be closer to league average than exceptional — is not warranted.
I will be playing the over of seven at -125 and would play it to -135.
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tanner McGrath: Fellow Action Network analyst Collin Wilson projects San Francisco at -127 on the full game moneyline tomorrow. However, the Giants are hovering around -150 across the markets.
I tend to agree and think the Cardinals are slightly undervalued in this one.
Carlos Rodon is amazing, but Adam Wainwright is consistently underrated by both the betting market and baseball fans. Yeah, he’s old, but he’s not slowing down a bit. Wainwright gives you as good a chance to win as anyone.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have the advantage with a lefty on the mound. This team mashes southpaws, and that gives them a slight advantage over the six innings Rodon will likely pitch.
I think if we’re getting +125 or better with St. Louis, we’re getting a considerable enough edge over the market to bet it. Plus, there’s nothing better than a home underdog on Sunday Night Baseball.
