We're back to a full slate in MLB, but our experts have honed in on two picks specifically.
Tanner McGrath is betting a road favorite tonight in Pittsburgh, while B.J. Cunningham is targeting a nasty Baltimore starter in a divisional matchup with Toronto.
So, without further ado, here are MLB odds and picks, including the "Payoff Pitch" podcast best bets, for Tuesday, Aug. 6.
Tanner McGrath and BJ Cunnigham's MLB Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 6
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Padres ML (-160) |
  | 7:07 p.m. | Orioles ML (-145) |
Padres ML (-160) at Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I bet the Padres at -160, but I like them up to -180.
I honestly think San Diego should be a monster favorite, like around -210, because I'm all in on Dylan Cease. He's in the zone right now with his fastball velocity up over a tick, and he has been shoving across his past four starts. In that span, Cease has thrown 28 innings of one-run ball with 36 strikeouts, including a no-hitter. He's making a strong case to be the National League Cy Young Award winner.
Conversely, he faces Bailey Falter who has been overperforming for Pittsburgh and is overvalued. He has a 3.90 ERA but his expected run indicators are pushing 5.00. He can't miss bats with only a 16% strikeout rate and his batted ball profile is a mess. I think Falter has gotten a little lucky and expect the Padres to get to him early and often.
The Pirates haven't hit right-handed pitching all season, and I doubt they start here against the hottest pitcher in the NL tonight. I give the Padres a significant defensive advantage and although I actually like the Pirates bullpen a bit, the Padres' relief corps is just far deeper.
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Orioles ML (-145) at Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Grayson Rodriguez hasn't quite gotten the headlines yet, but he has been incredibly solid this season with a 3.74 xERA while registering just over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
More importantly, Rodriguez has a 119 stuff+ rating, which to put in perspective is better than teammate Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez did get roughed up by the Blue Jays in his last start, but he'll be starting opposite Chris Bassett, who is probably having his worst season since 2015. The veteran right-hander has a 4.30 xERA and his sinker, which he throws 40% of the time, just hasn't been that effective.
Bassett will be facing one of the best lineups in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Also, the Orioles bullpen is significantly better than the Jays. I think Baltimore has the advantage in just about every single aspect of the game. Because of that, I think the O's are a little undervalued here.
I project Baltimore closer to -160 tonight.
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