Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Game 1 Odds | Phillies +118/Mets -137 |
| Game 1 Over/Under | 6.5 (-112/-109) |
| Game 2 Odds | Phillies -124/Mets +107 |
| Game 2 Over/Under | 5 (-127/+105) |
| Times | 4:10 & 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings. | |
After a rainout on Monday, the Mets and Phillies will begin their long-awaited series in New York on Tuesday with a single-admission doubleheader beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET.
The Mets will send Taijuan Walker to the mound against Chase Anderson to kick things off, while Marcus Stroman and Aaron Nola match up in a popcorn-inspired nightcap. Is there value on either or both of these games? Let's look into some numbers to find out.
Philadelphia Phillies
It's always difficult to project out the lineups for a double-header, but we can assume that stars on either team will sit at least one game. With that, it makes sense to focus on both pitchers.
Anderson has not really wowed anyone since his stellar 2017 campaign. In fact, he appeared to be at the end of his line with a 7.22 ERA in seven starts for Toronto last season. Well, all he did in his first start against the Mets was dazzle over five strong innings, allowing two earned runs on just two hits and two walks. The lone barrel he gave up was a homer off the bat of Dom Smith at 101.8 mph on a four-seamer high and away. It was hardly a mistake pitch, and just a good bit of hitting.
Nola, too, has been stellar in the early going with only three earned runs over 10 2/3 innings against good lineups in the Braves and Mets, though his 4.72 xERA leaves room for a little concern about his performance.
While the Braves barrel up as many balls as anyone in the league, Nola is supposed to be the ace of this staff. His strikeout stuff has yet to appear this season, though we're through just two games. He ranked in the top 9% of the league last season with a 33.2% strikeout rate, though we're still obviously just a couple weeks into 2021.
Things won't be too easy against a Mets team with the second-lowest strikeout rate against righties.
New York Mets
This Mets rotation entered as a bit of a mystery, and I'm not sure we are any closer to figuring it out.
New York was the latest team to take a flyer on the once-promising Walker, who has never posted an expected ERA below 4.24 since the Statcast era began. His fastball velocity has dropped off quite significantly since the early years of his career, though to his credit, his hard-hit rates have never really been all that terrible.
What has been poor and consistent is his walk rate, which has hovered near 9% four seasons in a row, discounting 2019 when he threw 15 pitches. His strikeout rate is also down to 17.4% so far this season, which would be just off a career-low.
The real mystery, though, is Stroman. It appeared after his fast start in Toronto that his career was beginning to head in the wrong direction, then all of the sudden in 2019, he found something. It was that season that he was shipped off to the Mets at the deadline in a move meant to help offset the trade of Noah Syndergaard. The Mets, of course, wound up hanging on to Syndergaard, and with what they got from Stroman, it was a no-brainer to keep him.
Stroman ranked in the top 7% of the league in barrel rate and his spin rates were superb, both with his fastball (88th percentile) and slider (77th). He began really using his cutter, and stopped relying so much on the sinker.
Any way you slice it, Stroman is the best matchup for this formidable Phillies lineup, though Anderson's start in the first game will mean the Mets are favored in that one.
Phillies-Mets Pick
I see value in both underdogs here. Though I am willing to concede that Anderson isn't the Anderson of old, I'd rate him pretty similarly to Walker, if not a shade better. The 28-year-old has been wildly erratic and is a bad matchup for a patient Phillies team.
On the other hand, there are some valid concerns with Nola, and I'm going to take a wait-and-see approach before backing him. Stroman did attempt to pitch on Sunday before throwing to just a few batters, so I'm not overly confident in him, but if he's even 90% at the level we've seen from him, the Mets should have a good chance.
The lineup should also have some success — we've seen pitcher after pitcher struggle this season the second time facing an order in as many weeks.
Pick: Phillies Game 1 (+110), Mets Game 2 (+107)
