Another Saturday in Major League Baseball is upon us and we have 16 games to pick from, including a doubleheader between the Braves and Marlins.
Our analysts are on two games this evening, focusing on a total between the Cubs and Reds, and a side between the Twins and Angels.
Here are our best bets from Saturday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Cubs vs. Reds
DJ James: Both Adrian Sampson and Graham Ashcraft have been pleasant surprises for their respective rebuilding baseball teams out of the rotation.
Both excel in allowing weak contact on average. Sampson ranks in the top-20% of the league in hard hit rate and exit velocity, while Ashcraft is in the top-20% in exit velocity and top-45% in hard hit rate. They have both been above-average pitchers this season, which has led to 4.00 or lower xERAs.
The Cubs and Reds also both have sub-90 wRC+ marks off of right-handed pitching, and the Cubs only hold a .265 OBP in the last month.
Cincinnati’s bullpen has been underwhelming with a 4.24 xFIP in that same timeframe, while the Cubs have ranked in the top-half of the league at 3.90.
All of these signs point to taking the under in this game. As seen in the Field of Dreams Game, neither of these teams is an offensive juggernaut, especially with a capable starting pitcher on the bump.
Take the under from 9.5 (-120), and play it to 8.5 (-120).
Twins vs. Angels
Jules Posner: Now that the pressure is on as the season starts to approach the home stretch, the Minnesota Twins are starting to lose their footing in the playoff race. After going 10-15 in July, the Twins are off to a 5-5 start in August.
With nothing left to play for, the Los Angeles Angels are in a perfect position to play the spoiler in the American League for the rest of the season. Although they are just 6-5 so far in August, the Angels' offense seems to have come out of its prolonged slump to some degree.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Angels are 14th in MLB with a 105 team wRC+ against RHP at home. They get to take on Dylan Bundy, who carries a 6.33 ERA and a 4.58 FIP on the road into Saturday's start.
Since being recalled, Angels' starter Reid Detmers has been pitching very well. Since the beginning of July, Detmers has posted a 1.16 ERA with a 2.15 FIP, and a 2.97 xFIP. The Twins have been around league average against LHP on the road over the past month, but Detmers seems to be setting a ceiling and this is a good time to back him.
Furthermore, the Angels opened the day as slight underdogs and their moneyline has remained stable overnight. The Angels are actually playing decent baseball as of late and I would play them at -115 or better.
