With a full slate of 15 games, there's plenty of MLB action on Saturday. Our Action Network MLB analysts have locked in on their three favorite bets for the evening wave of games tonight. They are targeting plays on Dodgers vs. Braves, Reds vs. Giants, and Phillies vs. Padres.
To see our analysts' favorite pair of plays for Saturday's afternoon games, check out our earlier best bets article here. Keep reading for more analysis and picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Editor's Note: Andrew Heaney has been scratched from this start, and Mitch White will start in his place for the Dodgers. The best price on the Braves at the time of writing is -144 on the moneyline at FanDuel.
DJ James: Max Fried has been one of the best lefties in the MLB this season. He owns a 2.77 ERA against a 3.08 xERA but boasts a 95th percentile Chase Rate and above average peripherals in virtually every other important predictive category. He will pitch for the Atlanta Braves on Saturday against Andrew Heaney and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Heaney is an average back-of-the-rotation starter. Last year he held a 4.30 xERA. This season, he has had three great appearances, but that run should end here as the Braves have crushed left-handers as of late.
In June, the Braves have a 148 wRC+ while slugging .556 as a unit. Heaney will let up some hard-hit balls. Last year, he ranked in the 32nd percentile in Hard-Hit Rate, so the Braves should exploit this usual issue. The Braves rank third in baseball with a 43.5% Hard-Hit Rate, so they should be fine.
Building off of that, the Braves have a team bullpen xFIP of 3.12 in June, which is the best in the MLB. The Dodgers are above average at 3.64, but the Braves have been on fire, so once Fried leaves the game, he has strong backup.
Take the Braves at -120, and play them to -135.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Jules Posner: While he is far removed from his peak years, Evan Longoria is still a streaky hitter with some platoon value.
Tonight Longoria faces off against the Cincinnati Reds' Mike Minor — just a couple of old guys duking it out.
Longoria is in the midst of a modest five-game hit streak, and he has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in three of those five games. Additionally, he has a .222 ISO over that stretch and a .389 batting average.
Longoria has found himself in more of a platoon role in his later career in San Francisco, but he handles left handed pitchers well, especially at home. Although the sample size is small, Longoria is hitting .333 against LHP at home, and three of his six hits have gone for extra bases. Pair that with a Reds bullpen that is allowing a .281 batting average against over the past three weeks, and Longoria could be a sneaky play today.
His total bases line is set at 1.5 for +130. If it stays in that range, it could be a sneaky value play. However, this could be played at any plus-money odds.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Sean Zerillo: Snell's Walk Rate has spiked during his tenure in San Diego. Among a group of 184 pitchers who have thrown 100+ innings over the past two years combined, Snell has the fourth-highest Walk Rate (12.6%).
The former Cy Young winner is still generating strikeouts at a high clip, but his command has fallen off drastically:
Moreover, the Phillies rake against left-handed pitching (113 wrC+, seventh) and rank 9% better against lefties compared to righties in my model, so this should be a difficult matchup for him.
Snell faced the Phillies on May 18 and allowed three hits, three walks, and three runs over 3 2/3 innings.
I have also maintained that Zach Eflin is also among the more underrated pitchers in baseball.
Among the 99 pitchers who have tossed 200+ innings combined over the past three seasons, Eflin ranks 26th with a 3.58 xFIP, ahead of both Frankie Montas and Walker Buehler. He also ranks 29th in K-BB%, with the fourth-lowest Walk Rate in that same group of pitchers.
I projected the Phillies as favorites in both halves of Saturday's matchup. You can bet their F5 moneyline to -115 and their full game moneyline to +101.
You can also bet their F5 spread (+0.5 runs) up to -156.
