Thursday brings with it a 12-game slate in Major League Baseball, with a handful of afternoon games, a doubleheader in the Bronx, and plenty of betting options.
Three of our analysts have keyed in on two games this evening, with a pair of picks on Mariners–Orioles in Baltimore, as well as a total play on Padres–Brewers in Milwaukee.
Here are our three best bets from tonight's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Jules Posner: I can't believe I'm writing this, but in the year of our lord 2022, I am backing the Baltimore Orioles and Jordan Lyles in Thursday night's match up against the Seattle Mariners.
Lyles has been steady at home this season, pitching his way to a 2.10 ERA and a 2.29 FIP over 25 ⅔ innings. Not sure what Lyles is up to, but those are his numbers, and those numbers are good.
On the other side, Chris Flexen is a lot like an egg salad sandwich, he does not travel well. He has a 4.97 road ERA and a 5.95 FIP over 25 1/3 road innings. The road was also his weaker split in 2021.
After getting blown up on Wednesday night, the Mariners' bullpen may still be spread thin and reeling. This should give the Orioles’ offense an opportunity to jump on a vulnerable Flexen, who needs to give his team some innings.
The Mariners' offense has been solid on the road against RHP over the past few weeks, but I am buying Lyles at home.
The Orioles are not who they used to be and need to be treated as legit options when the price is right. I would bet them to -110.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Michael Arinze: It's been a struggle thus far for the Seattle Mariners to replicate last season's success. After finishing 18 games over .500 in 2021, Seattle is well off the pace at 21-29 through 50 games.
A closer look reveals that the Mariners outperformed their metrics last year as they won 90 games despite posting a -51 run differential. That's pretty alarming given the 162-game sample size. Moreover, Seattle was the only team to finish the season above .500 with a negative run differential. Thus, judging by those numbers, I'm not sure we should be too surprised about the Mariners' slow start to this campaign.
Seattle has struggled away from T-Mobile Park with a 9-19 mark. The Mariners are coming off another road defeat after falling 9-2 to the Orioles. However, Seattle will still have a chance to win the series when Chris Flexen starts on Thursday night.
Baltimore will hope to make it two wins in a row as Jordan Lyles gets the nod. Lyles has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles as he's 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. His advanced numbers are slightly better, given his 4.06 FIP and 3.90 xFIP.
As for Flexen, he's 2-6 with a 4.47 ERA. His advanced numbers could point to further regression given his 5.07 FIP and 4.68 xFIP. Flexen's trajectory over the past two years strongly mirrors the Mariners, as he also outperformed his numbers last year by finishing 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA. However, he posted a 4.70 SIERA, which was more than one run higher than his ERA. That's a clear warning sign which landed him on my fade list.
Given Seattle's struggles on the road, I think this is a great spot to back Baltimore at home. The Orioles are 13-12 at home, which bears significance because Lyles has also been much better at Camden Yards than on the road. Lyles has a 2.10 ERA with a 2.29 FIP at home vs. a 6.03 ERA and a 5.51 FIP on the road. His hard-hit rate is also significantly lower at home (23.7% vs. 36.6%).
After running the numbers, my model makes Baltimore closer to a -120 favorite, so I like the value I'm currently getting in the market with odds as low as -101 over at WynnBET.
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
DJ James: The story here is not necessarily the strength of the starting pitchers, but how poorly each of these teams have hit this profile of a starting pitcher. The Brewers have only put up a collective 79 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of May, ranking 28th in the league. The Padres are slightly worse at 77 wRC+ off of righties, also ranking 28th.
Both of these bullpens have been top-five in xFIP since May 1, too. Milwaukee owns a bullpen SIERA of 3.24, while San Diego comes in at 3.35. These are solid numbers and even more encouraging for a low-scoring ballgame.
Finally, Adrian Houser ranks in the 80th percentile in barrel percentage and the 63rd percentile in exit velocity. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea has a strong 3.58 xERA with an above-average whiff rate and strikeout percentage.
All of these numbers are encouraging for those who want to take the under in this ballgame. Houser and Manaea are decent starting pitchers and both bullpens are top-of-the-line. Take the under from 8.5 (-120). Play to 7.5 (-110).
