You like day baseball? Wednesday has plenty of day baseball. Only five of the 14 scheduled games start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, with a whopping nine getting going this afternoon.
It starts with Braves vs. Phillies right after noon, but there's a lot of other action, as well, and our analysts have their eyes on three games total, including two out west this afternoon.
We've got picks on Rangers vs. Mariners, Giants vs. Diamondbacks and Rays vs. Orioles. Here are our three best bets from Wednesday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rangers vs. Mariners
Anthony Dabbundo: Based on wRC+, Texas has a top-five offense this season against left-handed pitching. The Rangers will see Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales on Wednesday. Gonzales has pitched well to this point in the season based on his surface level numbers, but a lot of that has been a mirage.
When you consider that Gonzales' 3.47 ERA is accompanied by one of the worst K-BB% rates among qualified starters and a career-low strikeout rate, it's harder to believe he'll continue to run this well with his batted ball profile.
He's allowed 10 runs combined in his last two starts, including an outing against the Rangers just before the All-Star Break. His opposition starter in the game on Wednesday is Rangers righty Jon Gray, who has pitched considerably better of late than he did early in the year.
He’s improved both his K/9 and BB/9 this season and his K-BB% ratio is the highest of his career His Stuff+ numbers have been trending up and have reached 100, based on Eno Sarris' model from The Athletic, putting him above average for starters.
The Rangers have the better matchup splits and starting pitcher and should be more of a favorite. Seattle's recent winning run has it overvalued here.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Collin Whitchurch: The Giants have fallen on hard times of late. A sixth-straight loss on Tuesday — against these same Diamondbacks — put them a game under .500 and on the outside looking in at the NL wild-card race with a run differential creeping down toward the even mark.
Logan Webb has been nearly as good this year as his breakout season in 2021 from the standpoint of his expected indicators, but he's missing fewer bats and the Giants are playing considerably worse defense behind him.
By xERA, Zac Gallen is actually the superior pitcher and I think the matchup on the mound is a wash, at worse, from Arizona's perspective. Gallen allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings against the Giants two weeks ago, and while San Francisco is one of the best fastball-hitting teams in the league, it rates average or worse against Gallen's two secondaries — the slider and curveball.
Webb threw six shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Diamondbacks a day before the aforementioned Gallen start in what amounted to a 13-0 Giants win, but given San Francisco's porous play of late and the fact that this starting pitching matchup is so tight, I like Arizona here as a short underdog.
You could get the Diamondbacks at +100 on Tuesday night, and I would play them to -110.
Rays vs. Orioles
Jules Posner: The Baltimore Orioles pulled off yet another comeback victory on Tuesday night and they look to take clinch the series victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.
For all of the complaints about the new dimensions at Camden Yards, the Orioles seem to be doing just fine at home. They are 28-19 at home this season and they are taking on a Rays team that is 21-27 on the road.
More specifically, the Orioles have been generating offense at home this season, but especially lately. Over the past few weeks they have the seventh-highest wRC+ at home against RHP and they get to take on Drew Rasmussen, a pitcher who struggles on the road.
Rasmussen has an ERA, FIP and xFIP all north of four on the road. This means the Orioles will have a considerable edge heading into game three of this four-game home series.
Tyler Wells' does have scary peripherals at home this season, but you know what's not scary? The Rays' road offense over the past couple of weeks. The Rays have been well below league average offensively against RHP on the road and that should continue in spacious Camden Yards.
The Orioles enter the game as underdogs at +110 odds, but they quickly moved down to -105 in some books. The closer you can get to plus money for the Orioles, the better, but they should be backed at -115 or better.
