Friday begins a weekend of marquee matchups in Major League Baseball, including key rivalry series' like Yankees vs. Red Sox, Brewers vs. Cardinals and Phillies vs. Mets.
Our analysts have picks on two of those games among our four best bets, adding some value with Diamondbacks vs. Rockies and Twins vs. Angels, as well.
Here are our four best bets from Friday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Yankees vs. Red Sox
DJ James: Domingo Germán has shown some promise with a 2.70 ERA over his last two starts, so he might be finding a groove. He just needs to keep the team above water, and New York should triumph.
Nathan Eovaldi has been underwhelming, to say the least. He does only walk 4% of hitters, but his hard hit rate is 46.7% with an average exit velocity of 90 MPH. The Yankees rank second in both metrics. The Red Sox will likely have to go early to a bullpen that holds the second-worst xFIP in the league over the past month at 4.60.
In addition, the Yankees own a 116 wRC+ in the last month of baseball, while the Red Sox come in at 27th with a 81 wRC+. Enrique Hernández, Trevor Story and Rob Refsnyder are all on the injured list, so the depth has not proven successful.
Take the Yankees to -140. They should be more significant favorites with how poorly the Red Sox are playing.
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Jules Posner: Jordan Montgomery makes his second start for the Cardinals and he was excellent in his debut against his former team, the New York Yankees, at home in his last start. He held the Yankees to two hits over five innings and he gets the face a Brewers team that is 23rd in team wRC+ against LHP on the road over the past month and over the course of the season.
Eric Lauer, the Brewers' starter, has been more vulnerable on the road this season. Additionally, he is 13th in MLB in run support among starting pitchers. However he is taking on a Cardinals offense that has been wearing out LHP at home this season and his offense has not done the same on the road.
The Cardinals moneyline sits around -165 (-160 MGM), which is a stretch in terms of the amount of juice I want to lay down for the payout. The run line is solidly in plus money and while there is some risk here, the Cards' favorable situation at home and their 8-2 record over their last 10 games make it worth the risk.
As long as the run line stays in plus money, it's the best value on the board in this match up.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Brad Cunningham: This line is a little crazy given how bad Antonio Senzatela has been for the Rockies this year.
Senzatela has a 5.34 xERA and is near the bottom in just about every single advanced metric for MLB pitchers.
He is also a heavy fastball pitcher, going to it over 53% of the time and is allowing a .325 xBA and .451 xwOBA on it. Fastballs are the only pitch the Diamondbacks have a positive run value against, ranking 14th in MLB at +6.8, per FanGraphs.
Zach Davies is actually having a career year in Arizona. His xERA is at 4.08, which is his best mark since 2016. Opposing hitters only have a 31.4% hard hit rate and average exit velocity of 86.8 mph, both of which are in the top 10% of the league.
So, I have no idea why the Rockies are favored, even though it’s at Coors Field. I have the Diamondbacks projected at -132 for the full game and -153 for the full game. So I am doubling up on the Diamondbacks full game at +106 (FanDuel) and first five innings at +112 (BetRivers).
Twins vs. Angels
Charlie DiSturco: It’s Tyler Mahle Day once again as the right-hander continues to be one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball.
Mahle’s xERA (3.40) is over a run lower than his actual ERA (4.49) and advanced metrics support positive regression for the right-hander. Opponents have a .210 xBA against Mahle, whose only major flaw is his 8.7 percent walk rate.
But Friday night is a favorable matchup for Mahle, as the Angels offense ranks 27th in wRC+ and 25th in walk rate over the last two weeks. They have had minimal success at the plate and continue to struggle as one of the American League’s bottom-feeders.
Patrick Sandoval starts opposite Mahle, who unlike the right-hander has been fortunate in 2022. The southpaw’s xERA (4.44) sits a run higher than his actual ERA (3.41) and opponents have a .257 xBA.
Sandoval’s walk rate is also in the double digits, but has consistently escaped jams. He has a career-best strand rate of 76 percent and I expect that number to regress toward his career average.
Despite a shutout over 5 1/3 innings his last time out, Sandoval posted a 6.20 ERA in July. He gave up 17 runs across 24 2/3 innings and I’d expect similar struggles against the Twins here.
I love this matchup for Minnesota and think it has the advantage in all facets — starting pitching, bullpen and offense. Mahle continues to be undervalued in the market and I’d back the Twins up to -135 here.
Back Mahle and the Twins to bounce back against the Angels in the series opener on Friday night.
