Tuesday brings us an action-packed slate in Major League Baseball. The White Sox and Royals get us started with Game 1 of a doubleheader this afternoon, but there are 16 games in total on which to bet.
Our analysts are on three of those games with four bets total. Those picks include: Marlins vs. Phillies, Giants vs. Padres and Twins vs. Dodgers.
Here are our four best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Marlins vs. Phillies
Jules Posner: Zack Wheeler has been almost every bit as automatic as Sandy Alcantara this season and he is particularly dominant at home.
He's posted a 1.58 ERA with a 2.52 FIP over 62 2/3 home innings in 2022. He also gets the benefit of taking on a Marlins' offense that is in the lower half of the league in team wRC+ against RHP on the road over the past couple of weeks.
Braxton Garrett starts for the Fish and he has a 4.23 road ERA this season, but a 3.50 FIP. These numbers are respectable, but the Phillies have been mashing LHP at home over the past month. Even without Bryce Harper, the Phillies have the fifth-best team wRC+ in MLB against LHP at home over that span.
The Phillies' run line opened at -105 and moved to -115 overnight. If you're feeling sassy, taking an alternate run line like -2.5 runs for plus money might be worth a half unit to sweeten the deal.
Giants vs. Padres
Anthony Dabbundo: Padres starter Joe Musgrove is experiencing continued regression as he's had a drop-off in his stuff. I don’t think the market has quite caught up to downgrading him at this point.
His Stuff+ has dropped off by four points in the last 400 pitches, per Eno Sarris model from The Athletic. His ERA sits at an impressive 3.00, but his xFIP (3.32) and xERA (3.41) suggest he hasn't been quite as good as that low ERA suggests.
Giants starter Alex Cobb has an elite groundball rate, showcased by his negative average launch angle this season. His K-BB% numbers are pretty comparable to Musgrove, as he sits above average at 16%, with Musgrove a touch better at 18.6%.
The two pitchers have similar stuff, similar command numbers and despite this, Cobb has the better xERA at 2.79.
I'm personally focusing on the first five innings because the Giants used their entire A-bullpen heavily last night (John Brebbia, Tylor Rogers, Camilo Doval) and it hasn’t been a consistent unit this year. San Diego's superior lineup and bullpen depth could tip this game its way later on, but I like San Francisco in the first five innings.
Musgrove and the Padres shouldn't be lined a half-run better in the first five innings and I will be Giants first five +0.5 at -120 or better.
Giants vs. Padres
Sean Zerillo: Alex Cobb (4.08 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 2.81 xFIP, 3.06 SIERA) and Joe Musgrove (3.00 ERA, 3.42 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA) stand on opposite ends of the luck spectrum this season.
Underlying indicators suggest that Cobb has been the superior pitcher but is victimized by a poor BABIP (.324 vs. .294 career) and a low strand rate (61% vs. 71.7 career), whereas Musgrove (.265 BABIP, 75% stand rate) has benefitted, relative to his career averages (.294 BABIP, 71.7% strand rate).
Certainly, defensive quality is a determining factor in those results. The Padres rank 19th in Defensive Runs Saved and second in Outs Above Average, whereas the Giants rank 29th in both defensive metrics.
While Musgrove has a year comparable to the past two seasons, Cobb has experienced a late-career breakout. His fastball velocity (94.8 mph) stands at a career-best — three ticks better than his career average. And both his strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%) and groundball rate (62.2%) stand at career-best marks.
I see value on the Giants' moneyline in both halves of Tuesday's matchup. I would play their first five innings (F5) moneyline down to +125 (44.4% implied) and their whole game line down to +140 (40% implied), with either wager representing an edge of two percent or more compared to my projection.
Twins vs. Dodgers
Kenny Ducey: Joe Ryan is a fine pitcher. The Twins righty has now gone 117 ⅓ innings in his big-league career, pitching to a 3.76 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP. He’s been above-average in the strikeout department and pitcher to a .208 xBA and a .372 xSLG. All of this is proof that he’s no slouch, and capable of slowing even the best offenses in the game.
The Dodgers’ offense is always a terrifying fade, but a 122 wRC+ in the last week and a meek 4.4% walk rate coupled with a bad 23.5% indicates this is probably as good a time as ever to take a shot. Even with that, L.A. could probably still put up four or five runs and this under would have a great shot at cashing.
That’s because the Twins, who are 14th in wRC+ to left-handed pitching, will have to go up against Julio Urias. The lefty has been sensational this year with an elite 2.57 ERA in 115 ⅔ innings and for a fourth straight year is in the top 9% of the league in hard-hit rate.
With excellent numbers like this, it’s no surprise that the under is 17-4 in games pitched by Urias, and that’s a trend I expect to continue here against a Twins lineup that’s been mediocre of late.
