It's another action-packed Tuesday in Major League Baseball with 16 games, including a doubleheader between the Cardinals and Cubs.
Our analysts have found angles on four games today, including a pair of picks in agreement on Rangers vs. Rockies. We also have bets on Reds vs. Phillies, Giants vs. Tigers and Twins vs. Astros.
Here are our five best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Reds vs. Phillies
Jules Posner: Nick Lodolo has struggled on the road so far in 2022, but he is steadily improving and learning at the big league level. Tuesday night will be his fourth career road start and taking on a Phillies team that is 4-6 over their last 10 games may present a good opportunity for Lodolo to positively regress.
Additionally, Ranger Suarez has really struggled at home this season, and his sample is much larger and more convincing than Lodolo's road sample. Suarez has an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all over 4 and he'll be taking on a Reds offense that has the fourth-best wRC+ on the road against LHP over the past month.
While the Phillies' offense has been solid at home against LHP over the past month, Lodolo still possesses many above average qualities. He racks up swings and misses and the Phillies strike out a lot, but don't walk much.
The Reds are getting +0.5 for +100 in the first five innings. Considering Suarez's struggles at home and the Reds' underrated offense, this feels like a very reachable cover. Play it at -110 or better.
Giants vs. Tigers
Brad Cunningham: Carlos Rodon has been dominant all season long. His 2.76 xERA and 11.48 K/9 rate are both top 10 in MLB. Opponents only have a .204 xBA, .261 xwOBA and a .321 xSLG against Rodon, which is in the top 15% of baseball.
Rodon utilizes a two-pitch combination that he goes to over 90% of the time, a fastball and a slider. Both pitches are allowing an xwOBA under .385 and producing a whiff rate over 25%, per Baseball Savant.
Tonight he will be facing a Tigers lineup that is not only 21st in wOBA against lefties, but has a combined -85.9 run value against fastballs and sliders, which is by far the worst mark in baseball.
Drew Hutchison is a below average starting pitcher. He's a negative regression candidate, too, because his ERA is currently sitting at 4.23, but his xERA is at 5.16. He, like Rodon, mainly only throws a fastball or a slider. The difference is, his fastball and slider are both allowing an xBA over .265 and a xwOBA over .320. The Giants have a combined +28.1 run value against those two pitches, so this will be a good matchup for them.
I have the Giants' first five innings spread of -0.5 projected at -175. So, I like the value on the current line of -140 and would play it up to -150.
Twins vs. Astros
Anthony Dabbundo: As good as Justin Verlander is and as bad as Aaron Sanchez has been this season, the Twins offense is way too good to be lined this high against anyone.
We saw last week that the White Sox were able to get to Verlander after the starting pitching and bullpen kept the game close enough for the White Sox to steal it.
The Twins will have all four of their high-leverage bullpen arms available and all four have excellent Stuff+ ratings. Griffin Jax, Michael Fulmer, Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez can help shorten the game and haven't had a ton of use in the last three days.
The Twins have a top-five offense by wRC+ and rank fourth against right-handed pitching this season. Verlander is the AL Cy Young favorite with a 1.98 ERA. But, his underlying numbers suggest he hasn't quite been that good.
Verlander’s xERA still a full run higher than his actual at 2.98. His xFIP is 3.48 and his Pitching+ — a metric that combines stuff and command — is solidly above average but not elite at 105.
We really just need to survive the first 4-5 innings of Verlander vs. Sanchez and keep the game close enough for the Twins' offense and improved bullpen to do its work.
Minnesota actually opened +310 at FanDuel overnight, one of the worst openers in the entire MLB season. That wasn't around long, as the market bet it down to the current +270 at BetRivers and +260 at FanDuel.
The market still hasn't come down low enough on the Twins and I'd still bet them at the current number.
Rangers vs. Rockies
Tanner McGrath: It’s clear that German Marquez is broken. After years of being a bright spot at the top of the Rockies' rotation, his ERA has taken a massive jump this season alongside all his peripherals. He’s on pace to post the lowest ground-ball rate in five years and his home ERA is approaching 6.00.
Dane Dunning is nothing spectacular, but he hasn’t been that bad. He’s certainly more consistent, as his ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP all span between 4.02 and 4.16.
You’re also looking at a massive bullpen differential. Over the last month, the Rangers rank top-10 in reliever xFIP (3.68) while the Rockies rank 28th (4.43). I’d also much rather trust the Texas lineup, which has a 102 wRC+ in that span as opposed to the Rockies’ 90.
This feels like the wrong team is favored. I’d likely make the Rangers closer to -115 than +110, and I feel comfortable playing Texas to even money.
Rangers vs. Rockies
DJ James: Both Dane Dunning and Germán Márquez have been far sharper in the second half than the first. Dunning holds a 2.86 ERA after the All-Star break, while Márquez comes in at 3.50.
Márquez had a horrid start to the season, considering how consistent he has been in a home ballpark as friendly as Coors Field.
Still, Márquez loses a few points due to his inability to hold batters to weak contact. His hard hit rate ranks in the third percentile of the MLB, while his average exit velocity ranks in the seventh percentile.
Meanwhile, Dunning ranks in the top half of both of these metrics, respectively. He also excels with keeping the ball on the ground with his utilization of his sinker (54.3% groundball rate).
In the month of August, the Rangers own a 91 wRC+ against the Rockies’ 76 wRC+. Neither of these numbers jump off the page, but the Rangers are closer to average. The Rangers are also facing the weaker of the two pitchers at the moment.
Getting Texas at plus-money in this game is a gift. Take the Rangers to -125.
