The MLB season rolls on with a great slate of day games on Sunday afternoon. Every MLB team is in action, and our MLB analysts have identified six best bets for the 15 games on tap. Check out their analysis and picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 7:08 p.m. ET | |
Boston Red Sox VS. Tampa Bay Rays
Sean Zerillo: I suspect that Shane McClanahan will end up as an AL Cy Young finalist this season – and I'm disappointed that I didn't bet the 24-year-old southpaw to win the award in the preseason.
He's the hardest-throwing left-handed starting pitcher in the majors (averaging 97 mph in 2022) – ahead of Carlos Rodon (96.5 mph), Blake Snell (95.2), and Yusei Kikuchi (95.2).
Still, McClanahan also owns a plus curveball – which he's throwing twice as often as last season (up from 16.3% to 33%) – an above-average slider, and an improved split-changeup (usage up 5.6%, year over year).
The increased curveball and changeup usage have bumped McClanahan's groundball rate to 62% (+16.5% year over year). While I suspect it'll settle closer to 50-55% if he can keep the ball on the ground and maintain his strikeout rate, McClanahan will be one of the best pitchers in baseball; if he isn't already.
And while McClanahan is on the rise, Rich Hill has posted concerning expected indicators in three consecutive seasons (5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.70 xFIP in 2021, 5.33 xFIP in 2022).
The 42-year-old Hill is now a shell of the pitcher who posted a 2.90 xERA for the Dodgers in 2019. Since that campaign, Hill's fastball velocity has dipped more than two mph, and the spin rate on each of his pitches has declined every season.
This is a significant pitching mismatch, and I projected Tampa Bay as -195 favorites in the first five innings (F5).
I would bet Tampa's F5 moneyline up to -178 and show significant value relative to their opening lines at FanDuel (-158) or BetMGM (-165).
If you cannot bet that number in the morning after overnight movement, I like Tampa's full game moneyline as a parlay piece, up to -160 (projected -172).
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Nicholas Martin: Tampa should have a considerable pitching edge in the first five innings as they hand the ball to a guy who could end up in the Cy Young mix in Shane McClanahan.
The Rays will face a pitcher who I believe will post less than dominant results this season. Tampa hit the breaking ball well last season and matches up well against lefties, which isn't a good sign for Rich Hill and the Red Sox.
I see value backing Tampa -0.5 in the first five innings at -115 and would play that down to -125.
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Tony Sartori: I think this total is too high, likely because of Colorado's recent high-scoring games. However, the Rockies just had seven straight home games at a stadium known for its inflated run total due to the altitude.
The weather should help us out for this total to go under as well with the forecast calling for 17-20 mph winds blowing in from right field.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Michael Arinze: The Padres likely need this series more than the Dodgers after losing 12 of the 19 games in the season series last year. However, the Dodgers are on a perfect 10-0 run against the Padres when opening as a -140 favorite or higher.
My model makes the Dodgers as high as a -153 favorite, so I prefer to lean to the visitors in this matchup. However, I'm less inclined to get involved because I'm more interested in watching how Sean Manaea handles this lineup that's had success against him. Instead, I aim to use this game as a learning exercise for how I'll look to play Manaea the rest of the year.
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: The Diamondbacks have been tough for the Mets to put away. With the Diamondbacks pitcher having the edge against the Mets so far this series, the total opened at nine and has moved down to 8.5 on some books.
Considering the competitiveness of this series, the starting pitching matchup, and the all around lack of offense in baseball, the under is the play in this game.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
| 7:08 p.m. ET |
Brad Cunningham: I believe the starting pitching matchup greatly favors the Phillies in this matchup given Aaron Nola's success over the past two seasons and Philadelphia's ability to crush left-handed pitching.
I have the first five innings spread projected at -0.75, so I like the value we’re getting on Philadelphia -0.5 at -115 odds.
