Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Tuesday's AL Game 3 MLB Divisional matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
To reiterate my points from Monday regarding the ALDS matchups, I project the Orioles will win the final three games 12.5% of the time (+700 implied odds). I typically want something closer to +850 (10.5% implied) to jump on Baltimore's series price. However, as you'll see below, I have bets on Texas for Game 3; I see potential advantages for Baltimore in Games 4 and 5 and will bet this series game by game for now.
With Minnesota headed home tied 1-1 with Houston, I view either team as a coin flip to win two of the final three games in the series. I would need +105 to bet the Astros or +112 to bet the Twins series price before Game 3.
Austin Riley's eighth-inning home run flipped the Braves-Phillies series by about 40% in terms of implied probability. I would have put Atlanta's chances at 16% (+525 implied) with a Game 2 loss, but make the Braves slight favorites, even with a pair of road games in Philadelphia.
I would typically want +138 (41.9% implied) or better to back Philadelphia or -118 to bet Atlanta at this stage; however, I stand to win substantially more on Braves futures (1u on NL pennant at +500 and 0.5u on World Series at +1000) than I would on Phillies futures (0.25u pennant at +700). If Philadelphia holds serve at home, this would be my last opportunity to hedge against the Braves at plus money. As a result, I'm considering betting the Phillies series price at what I currently project as a break-even number (+128 at FanDuel) to hedge more of my Braves position.
I still expect the Dodgers to string together three consecutive wins to defeat the Diamondbacks 20% of the time (+400 implied odds) and would consider betting on Los Angeles at +455 or better. However, since we already bet them at -154 before Game 1 (closed -230) and +138 before Game 2 (closed +128) and have just over two units total allocated between those two wagers, I'm not looking to add substantially more to that pile of Dodgers risk, but FanDuel (+470) does have a price within range.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Game 3
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8 -118o / -104u | +118 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8 -118o / -104u | -138 |
Cristian Javier vs. Sonny Gray (full projections here)
MLB teams who win the home run battle have won postseason games at an 82.5% clip (137-29, not including ties) since 2018, and Tuesday's matchup between Sonny Gray (career 0.84 HR/9; 0.39 in 2023) and Cristian Javier (career 1.33 HR/9; 1.39 in 2023) presents a stark contrast in home run suppression.
Javier, who I considered a serious AL Cy Young candidate after a dominant 2022 season (2.43 xERA, 24.3% K-BB%), pitched much better in September (4.04 xFIP, 23.4% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) than he did over the first five months of the season (5.42 xFIP, 12.1% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+). His 4.48 xERA isn't far off from where I'd project him, but I'm slightly more optimistic on Javier currently than that season-long number.
I project Gray (3.69 xERA, 3.65 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+) as the superior starting pitcher, and he was peaking in September (110 Pitching+), ranking eighth among 109 qualified starters (min. 20 IP). Gray tossed a pair of quality starts against Houston this season — albeit in April and May when Houston's lineup wasn't fully healthy — and owns a .679 OPS allowed in 144 plate appearances against current Astros hitters.
The outs recorded prop for Gray (opened 14.5) seems a touch low, especially with these teams playing on consecutive days; Rocco Baldelli will look for every out that he can get from his starter. Ignoring his final regular start – a four-inning tuneup for the playoffs – Gray completed at least five innings (and recorded 15 or more outs) in 28 of 31 starts this season while averaging 5.8 innings or 17.4 outs per start. Bet Gray to record Over 14.5 Outs to -140, or Over 15 outs to -110.
Minnesota should have the pitching advantage throughout Game 3. I project the Twins' relief group as slightly better (by about two-tenths of a run on an ERA projection), and they had better results both in the second half and over the final month of the season (3rd vs. 14th in xFIP). However, Houston's bullpen led the majors in Stuff+ over both samples.
Season-long offensive splits prefer the Twins' offense (111 to 107 wRC+) when both teams face a right-handed starter. The two teams tied for third in the second half (123 wRC+), but Houston overtook the league in September (132 wRC+ vs. 122 for Minnesota). I give Houston a slight offensive advantage (125 vs. 122 wRC+) against righties, but it is negligible.
I project the Twins as nearly 56% favorites (-127 implied odds) for Game 3 and would bet their moneyline at -117 or better. Alternatively, look for +138 or better to back Houston.
I initially projected the Twins as smaller favorites for Game 3 and fired a bet on Houston (at +122) in the Action App before the line moved down in the market. I later cashed out of that position and would no longer fire on either side at current odds.
With temperatures at first pitch at 56 degrees, I set the total for Game 3 at 7.6 runs — compared to about 8.2 on a weather-neutral day — and would bet Under 8 to -105.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers Game 3
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 9 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 9 -115o / -105u | -142 |
Dean Kremer vs. Nathan Eovaldi (full projections here)
I want to reiterate the points that I made concerning Nathan Eovaldi before betting against him with the Rays in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card:
Eovaldi went on the IL with a forearm injury in late July. Before the IL stint, the righty had an excellent season, pitching to a 2.69 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and 16.9% strikeout minus walk (K-BB%) rate, alongside a 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ rating.
He likely returned prematurely in early September — after injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer — and has pitched at a reduced level over the past month (20.1 IP, 26 H, 21 R, 7 HR, 13 BB, 21 K) with the Rangers in dire need of pitching while fighting for their playoff lives.
His velocity is down a tick (from 95.4 mph to 94.1 mph) pre- and post-injury, and his pitch modeling metrics have fallen below average (97 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 91 Pitching+). The multi-year velocity trend for Eovaldi is also concerning.
However, the next and final point that I made ended up being the most important: "Although he allowed seven runs in his last [regular season] outing against the Mariners, Eovaldi did see his velocity (95.1 mph) return to early-season levels."
Eovaldi ultimately shoved against the Rays, with his fastball (95.1 mph) holding steady in consecutive starts, and he posted a 32% called strike plus whiff rate in six shutout innings against Tampa Bay, with all four of his pitches working:
As a result, I have to upgrade Eovaldi and move him back toward his early season level, giving Texas the starting pitching edge in Game 3 against Dean Kremer (4.14 ERA, 4.96 xERA, 4.34 xFIP), whose 13-5 record — despite subpar indicators — is indicative of the Orioles' dream season.
I expect Baltimore to be aggressive once again with its bullpen on the cusp of elimination, and Kremer may not pitch more than once through the Rangers' batting order. Books set his outs recorded prop at 10.5 — and I would probably lean to the Over — but I have no interest in taking a stance on either side.
I give the Orioles the bullpen advantage for Game 3, but it's negligible and the only place I think they have an edge. After the Felix Bautista injury in late August, the two teams ranked 14th and 15th in xFIP over the remainder of the season. However, Baltimore's relievers had much better stuff (108 Stuff+, 8th), while the Rangers' relievers exhibited superior command (96 Stuff+, 28th).
Texas has the offensive splits advantage so long as both teams deploy right-handed pitchers; Baltimore had better offensive splits against lefties (112 wRC+, 8th) than righties (102 wRC+, 12th) this season, a split that has grown in the second half (117 vs. lefties, 98 vs. righties in September). Texas had fairly neutral splits on the season but was much more effective against righties (112 wrC+, 8th) than lefties (96 wrC+, 16th) in the second half.
And Evan Carter (1.058 OPS in the regular season; 1.806 in the playoffs in 91 combined plate appearances) has been the X-factor at the bottom of the Rangers' lineup, regularly generating full counts and grinding down opposing pitchers since his September debut. He's already in elite playoff company:
at 21 years & 39 days old, Evan Carter is the 3rd-youngest player in postseason history with 4 XBH in a 3-game span, older than only:
2003 Miguel Cabrera: 20 y, 169 d
2019 Juan Soto: 20 y, 355 dhe’s the youngest with 4 XBH in his FIRST 3 postseason games https://t.co/5aoIC9PvaU
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 7, 2023
I set the Rangers as -167 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -149 favorites over the full game for Game 3 and would bet Texas to -153 for the first half (F5) and -137 for the full game.
While I'm also interested in betting on Eovaldi's props like Over 4.5 Strikeouts or Over on Outs Recorded with Texas holding a two-game lead and with Eovaldi almost undoubtedly unavailable for a potential Game 5 on two days' rest, both of those bets express the same opinion I'm already expressing by betting Texas on the moneyline — that Eovaldi is back in top form.
Sides and Totals for Tuesday, October 10
- Houston Astros / Minnesota Twins, Under 8 (-102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -105)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-135, Risk 1u) at bet365 (bet to -153)
- Texas Rangers (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -137)
Prop Bets for Tuesday, October 10
- Sonny Gray, Over 14.5 Outs (-125, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
