Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
It's Friday and the MLB slate is loaded once again. Orioles vs. Cubs gets things started this afternoon, but after that there are 14 more games under the lights, and plenty of action to be found.
Our analysts are on three games with four bets in total to recommend, including Yankees vs. Red Sox, Blue Jays vs. Rangers and Rays vs. Padres.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, June 16th.
Friday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
  | ||
| ||
  | ||
  | ||
| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Friday, June 16 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 9.5 (+100)  |
By D.J. James
Tanner Houck is slowly starting to see some positive regression. In his last outing, he gave up two earned runs over six innings pitched against the New York Yankees. He will see them again tonight in a rematch against Domingo Germán.
Germán has had a decent season with a 3.49 ERA against a 4.29 xERA. Yes, he will likely struggle more as the season rolls on, but he ranks in the 70th percentile in average exit velocity. Houck owns a 5.23 ERA, but his xERA is below 4.00.
The lineups are the largest piece of this angle. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have had trouble with right-handed pitching in June. The Red Sox have a 91 wRC+, while New York is even worse at 70. Both have been below average the last week, as well.
Both bullpens have mediocre xFIPs in June. That said, the Yankees have four active arms below a 4.00 xFIP. The Red Sox have three. Either way, both pitchers should go at least five innings, since each lineup has performed so poorly in June. Given that information, they should also have enough in relief after Germán and Houck exit this game.
Since neither of these teams can hit righties, the under should be in play. It opened at 9 and is actually trending upward. There are some 10s out there if you want to hedge toward a possible push, but I love the value of under 9.5 at +100.
Pick: Under 9.5 (+100)
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Friday, June 16 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox ML (-120)  |
Home runs have clouded the true talent and projection for Tanner Houck this season. He's allowed a home run on 18.1% of fly balls, which is an unsustainably high number. Throughout his MLB career and even in the minors, Houck never had a home run issue. He's consistently allowed less than one homer per 9 and his average MLB HR/FB rate is 10.1%.
I tend to use the BAT projections for rest of season, but the home run numbers for Houck from them seem too out of line with his past career splits. Houck projects as an above-average starter in most of the other projection systems, and I'd project him closer to those numbers for the rest of the season. His entire pitching profile looks similar to last season — barrels, K-BB%, Stuff+, and yet his ERA is nearly two runs higher.
If Houck keeps pitching as he has, the homers will regress and you'll be left with an above-average starter. We're buying him at a discount as a pick'em against the Yankees' reduced lineup without Aaron Judge.
While Houck has never had a homer issue in the past, that's been a major weakness for Domingo Germán. He's allowed 1.57 HR/9 in his MLB career and this season he's paired that with just slightly above-average strikeout and walks rate. A quick look at the ERA and even xERA would suggest these two starters are comparable.
Houck projects better for the rest of the season and the Red Sox have the better lineup projection at home without Judge.
The only clear advantage for New York is the bullpen, but I'd bet Boston at -125 or better.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-120)
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Friday, June 16 8:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)  |
By Alex Hinton
Gausman leads MLB with six starts consisting of double-digit strikeouts and ranks second with 117 strikeouts in just 86 1/3 innings. However, five of those starts have come in Toronto, where he has a 2.61 ERA and .218 opposing batting average allowed.
Gausman is not terrible on the road, but he’s not as dominant as he’s been at the Rogers Centre.
On the road, Gausman is 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA. He’s allowed 39 hits in 38 1/3 innings and is allowing a .253 opposing batting average in seven road starts.
Today, he faces a dangerous Texas lineup that leads MLB in hits, batting average and runs scored. When the Rangers get rolling, the entire lineup can get into the hit column.
However, they’ll still make the opposing pitcher work in losses. Just yesterday, they posted six hits and struck out just three times in six innings against Shohei Ohtani, as he went well under his line of 7.5 strikeouts.
We’ve hit on Gausman’s walks before, but when he allows baserunners, usually it’s via hits. He’s gone over this line in just six of his 14 starts this season. However, most of those overs have come against the tougher lineups he’s faced — such as St. Louis, Houston, Boston and Baltimore.
Collectively, the Rangers are hitting .286 against Gausman, with Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Nathaniel Lowe each being .400 or above lifetime.
If Gausman goes through the Rangers’ lineup a couple of times, I believe it’s likely that he allows at least six hits.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
Rays vs. Padres
Friday, June 16 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Padres ML (-105)  |
Take a look at Shane McClanahan from a baseline perspective and you see a sparkling 10-1 record with a 2.18 ERA. But the left-hander has been a bit fortunate and is among the most eligible negative-regression candidates.
For starters, his xERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher at 3.65. He has really struggled with limiting barrels and has seen his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate rise compared to last season. He’s also walking batters more and has an unsustainable 90.7 LOB% — the biggest reason his ERA remains in the low 2s.
This is a perfect opportunity to back the Padres as an underdog here. Yu Darvish takes the mound and is a positive regression candidate. His xERA (3.55) is nearly a run lower than actual and he’s posted his lowest xSLG (.369) since the 2020 COVID year.
Despite Darvish’s ERA sitting in the 4s, he’s been above average across the board. I expect him to turn a corner as the season trudges on and the Padres begin to put themselves back into playoff contention.
We all know about the Rays' offense and how solid it's been, but San Diego has quietly crushed left-handed pitching. The Padres are seventh in wRC+ and fourth in ISO against left-handed pitching.
I have the Padres favored here. They have a significant bullpen edge here, too. The once-daunted Rays bullpen of years past has dissipated. They are 29th in xFIP and Jason Adam, arguably their best arm, has thrown back-to-back days against the Athletics and is unavailable.
Pete Fairbanks just returned from the injured list, too, but he may be eased in and unavailable as well on a back-to-back.
Take San Diego and back the negative regression to strike McClanahan at Petco Park.
Pick: Padres ML (-105)
