With 16 games on Saturday in MLB, our team of betting analysts has zoned in on two matchups for our best bets.
The Cardinals and Cubs both are looking to get their seasons on track in the National League Central at Wrigley Field, while Gerrit Cole enters a matchup with his former club in terrible form. He'll start opposite another former Cy Young Award winner in Zack Greinke.
Check out our staff's picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Brad Cunningham: Kwang Hyun Kim has maybe been the Cardinals best pitcher this season, posting a 4.33 xERA and 4.56 xFIP. He mainly uses a fastball/slider combination and while his fastball has only been average this season, his slider has been awesome. Opponents have only been able to put up a .260 wOBA against it and it's notched 34 of his 52 strikeouts this season have come on his slider. The Cubs do not hit fastballs or sliders well, as they have a -11.8 combined run value against those two pitches.
Davies has been one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB this season. His xERA has ballooned up to 6.22, and his xFIP currently sits at 5.36.
Davies’ biggest problem is he's walking way too many guys, with a BB/9 rate that is over four and a K/9 rate that is under six. He's having way too many issues with his control.
Davies goes to either his sinker or changeup over 85% of the time, which is really going to be a problem since the Cardinals crush those pitches. St. Louis ranks seventh in MLB against changeups, and it features five players with a wOBA of .380 or higher against sinkers.
I have the Cardinals projected as -147 for the first five innings, so I think there is plenty of value on them at +100 and would play it up to -125.
Yankees vs. Astros
Matt Trebby: Whether it’s the lack of “sticky stuff” or something else, Gerrit Cole hasn’t looked like himself over his last six starts.
The Yankees’ ace has a 5.24 ERA since the start of June, having allowed 10 home runs over his last six outings. In those games, the Bronx Bombers are 2-4.
Starting opposite him will be former teammate Zack Greinke, who has been good but not great this season for the American League West leaders. The former AL Cy Young Award winner has a 3.64 ERA and 4.15 xFIP through 111 1/3 innings this season. He did struggle against the Yankees back on May 4 in the Bronx, allowing three runs while walking four over just four innings. The free passes haven’t been an issue over Greinke’s last seven starts, though, having allowed just eight in that span.
The main reason to back the Astros here, though, is Cole. Houston is 6-2 in July, despite losing its last two games, during which it has scored just one combined run. Carlos Correa was placed on the injured list last night due to health and safety protocols, but I think there’s enough familiarity with Cole that I can back the Astros at home.
They also are, simply put, the better team.
Yankees vs. Astros
Kenny Ducey: Gerrit Cole’s spin rates remain in the sewer and with deteriorating numbers and a couple bad starts in a row, it’s just very difficult to give him an endorsement in such a tough matchup.
Cole’s walks have ballooned in the post-sticky stuff era; he’s issued eight free passes in his last three starts, spanning 15 1/3 innings. It seemed like getting shellacked by the Red Sox was excusable, considering how well they have hit the ball all season long, but a stinker against the Mets was when New Yorkers officially had their Dwayne Johnson moment and raised one eyebrow.
On top of all this, Cole has allowed a homer in five straight starts and seven total in that span.
Now, he enters his former home in Houston at Minute Maid Park, where the Astros have gone 28-18. This lineup isn’t as imposing as it normally has been all season long with a wRC+ of 82 over the past two weeks, but that hasn’t stopped it from winning and pulling out some big nights at the plate in the process.
The Yankees’ best arms in the bullpen got a workout on Friday, which weakens the defense behind Cole, so I don’t think we will see a repeat of New York’s stellar performance on the hill in the opening game of this series.
On the flip side, Zack Greinke has been the model of consistency this season and continues to find ways to shut down opposing lineups even with a low strikeout rate. The best part about this matchup is Greinke’s ability to limit walks. Free passes are the lifeblood of the Yankees, and without them I’m just not sure how they score runs.
