With this being a holiday weekend, there are only five MLB games slated to start at 6 p.m. ET or later today, but our Action Network MLB analysts have three best bets for these games. They have one prop play on Red Sox vs. Cubs and two picks – a side and a total – for Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.
For our staff's best bets on the Saturday afternoon slate, click here.
MLB Odds & Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Jules Posner: After a quiet series in Toronto, look for Rafael Devers to get back on track Saturday night against Alec Mills and the Cubs' bullpen.
Although Mills has hardly pitched at all at home against left-handed hitters, they are two-for-five with a double against him. Going back to 2021, lefties put up a .319 batting average and a .522 slugging percentage against him, so Mills' history is not working in his favor today.
Additionally, the Cubs' bullpen has allowed a .280 batting average against over the past three weeks, which is the second-highest in MLB.
On the season, Devers is hitting .295 on the road against RHP, but he has a .289 ISO, and half of his hits on the road against RHP have gone for extra bases.
His total bases mark sits at 1.5 total bases at -125 odds and should stay in that neighborhood until first pitch. Although it's not plus-money, it's still a pretty decent value in an advantageous situation for Devers.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
William Boor: A pair of struggling pitchers? Check. Below average bullpens? Check. Coors Field? Check. All signs point toward the over as the D-backs and Rockies face off for the fifth time this season.
Dallas Keuchel will make his second start for the D-backs in what has been a tumultuous year for the former Cy Young Award winner. Keuchel went 2-5 with a 7.88 ERA through eight starts with the White Sox before he was DFA'd and then gave up four runs over 4 1/3 innings in his D-backs' debut.
His 4.41 xERA suggests some better results are coming, but there's still plenty of value in fading him. Keuchel is in the bottom 3% of the league in wOBA, bottom 6% in K% and bottom 8% in BB%. Following Keuchel will be a bullpen that has posted a 4.28 ERA — 21st in MLB — suggesting the Rockies should tack on a few more runs in the later innings.
It's more of the same on the other side as Austin Gomber takes the ball with a 6.55 ERA and a 5.26 xERA. The 28-year-old lefty has given up nine runs over his past three appearances (nine innings) and ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in both xBA and xSLG. The Rockies bullpen ranks 29th in baseball with a 4.77 ERA. Couple that with the fact that the D-backs hit better on the road (.694 road OPS as opposed to .644 at home), and this appears to be a favorable spot for the D-backs offense, despite its overall limitations.
The trends seem to point slightly to the over here as well. The over is 22-19-2 (51%) in Rockies home games and 20-16 (56%) in D-backs road games this season. This opened at 11.5, but was quickly bet up to 12 (-110). That gives us a push instead of a win, which isn't great, but isn't terrible either. I'd play this to -150 at 12 but wouldn't play it at 12.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Tony Sartori: While William is playing the total here, I am backing left-hander Dallas Keuchel and the Arizona Diamondbacks in this matchup as a short underdog.
Before those reading this article call for me to be put into a psychiatric ward for backing Keuchel at Coors Field, let me explain. It is no secret that Keuchel has struggled mightily this season as he is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and 2.15 WHIP through nine starts across two different teams.
While those numbers are obviously horrible, Keuchel's metrics are not nearly as bad. This season, Keuchel possesses a .343 xwOBA, .276 xBA, and .430 xSLG. Those metrics aren't great, but they are not nearly as bad as his surface-level stats. In fact, those metrics are better than Colorado's projected starting pitcher in this matchup.
Left-hander Austin Gomber may be an even worse pitcher than Keuchel as he possesses a .370 xwOBA, .298 xBA, and .525 xSLG. In fact, Gomber lost his spot in the starting rotation a few weeks ago because of his poor performances but is now forced to get a couple starts once again due to some recent roster moves by Colorado.
Arizona has teed off against Gomber in the past, which is a trend I expect to continue in this outing. In 26 career plate appearances against Gomber, this current Diamondbacks roster boasts a .381 BA, .571 SLG, and .424 wOBA.
On the other hand, this Rockies lineup has not had nearly as much success against Keuchel as they possess a .241 BA, .389 SLG, and .281 wOBA over 56 career plate appearances against him. The public will see Colorado as a short favorite against Keuchel and immediately flock towards that line, which is what we have already seen as about 60% of the bets are on the Rockies ML.
Because of this, I believe we are getting good value in Arizona's ML, especially considering that this matchup should favor the Diamondbacks.
I would play this line down to +115.
