Another weekend in Major League Baseball kicks off with a full slate on Friday night. Our analysts have zeroed in on two games specifically on tonight's 15-game slate: Giants vs. Cubs (4:10 p.m. ET) and Reds vs. Brewers (8:10 p.m. ET).
Check out our two best bets from Friday’s MLB slate below.
MLB Odds & Picks
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Jules Posner: In three career starts at Wrigley Field, Carlos Rodon has posted a 2.40 ERA with a 2.49 FIP and a 2.43 xFIP. He'll also be taking on a Chicago Cubs' offense that is 28th in team wRC+ at home against LHP over the past month.
The Giants' offense has been disappointing this season, but they have posted a top ten team wRC+ against LHP on the road over the past month. Drew Smyly gets the ball for the Cubs and despite his 2.86 ERA at home, his 4.49 FIP indicate he's due for some regression.
Both bullpens have been struggling this season, but the Cubs' bullpen has been the worst in baseball over the past couple of weeks. However, the Giants' bullpen has also been incredibly unreliable, therefore it may be best to factor both units out of the equation in Friday afternoon's match up.
The Giants first five inning run line is still available in plus money on some books, and that should be the play today as things look like the Giants should be able to cover that easily. They have had some interesting line movement overnight in terms of their full game odds.
Their moneyline opened at -165, but presently sits at -145. Perhaps other people are weary of their bullpen as well. Take the first five spread as long as it's in plus money.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
DJ James: Nick Lodolo was one of the Cincinnati Reds’ top prospects for a reason. He maintains a 3.94 ERA and 3.84 xERA in 73 innings pitched. He is no fluke and will face the floundering Milwaukee Brewers’ offense on Friday.
Lodolo has a nasty pitch arsenal, leading to a 28.3% strikeout percentage, spearheaded by a sinker, which he uses nearly 58% of the time. The 24-year-old southpaw has held opponents to a .218 xBA on the season, ranking in the 73rd percentile of the MLB.
Milwaukee will start Jason Alexander (not the actor who played George Costanza in Seinfeld). He is one of the worst pitchers on the Milwaukee roster with a 5.03 ERA and 5.17 xERA. He ranks in the bottom of the league in most important peripherals, as well.
Cincy has held a 93 wRC+ in the last month of baseball off of right-handed pitching. This is not necessarily good, but the Brewers come in at 80 wRC+ off of lefties, so they will struggle with Lodolo.
Building off of that, the Brewer bullpen has taken a step back with a 3.75 xFIP in that same timeframe. Devin Williams is notably absent from solid performances with a 4.19 xFIP in the last month, too.
Take the Reds and expect Lodolo to keep Milwaukee’s hitters in checks. Bet this from +130 to -110.
