Another Saturday of Major League Baseball is upon us and we've got day baseball galore, with 11 of the 16 games getting started before the lights come on.
Of those 11 games, our analysts have keyed in on two that present betting value: Rays vs. Orioles in Baltimore and White Sox vs. Astros in Houston.
Be sure to check back later this afternoon for our picks from the evening slate, but for now, here are our two best bets from Saturday afternoon's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
DJ James: The Orioles have hammered lefties in the month of June. They own the MLB’s fifth-ranked wRC+ at 161 with a .524 slugging percentage and .383 on base percentage.
Jeffrey Springs is putting together a solid 2022 campaign. His peripherals are off the charts, ranking in the top half of the league in every valuable metric, but his xERA is more than double his ERA of 1.45 (3.01). This means some negative regression is forthcoming, even if 3.01 is still a solid mark.
It should come in this game. Although it is a small sample size, the O’s have seven hitters over a .500 xwOBA this month. This explains the 161 wRC+, but should also be encouraging against a good pitcher like Springs.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen also ranks in the middle of the pack with a 3.93 xFIP in June. The Orioles could stack on a couple of more late inning runs for insurance.
Take the Orioles team total over 3.5 (+100) on the team total and play it to 5 (-110).
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Tony Sartori: With two good starting pitchers on the mound, we are getting an over-adjusted number on the total on Saturday in Houston. Right-hander Johnny Cueto is slated to take the mound for the White Sox while right-hander Justin Verlander is slated to take the mound for the Astros.
Make no mistake, Verlander has been incredible once again this season, however, the bats on both teams should still be able to get us to at least eight total runs. Since May 1st, the White Sox rank first in the league in BA, 16th in SLG, 10th in OPS, and eighth in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers on the road.
Over that same span, the Astros rank 15th in BA, 12th in SLG, seventh in OPS and fifth in wOBA when facing right-handers. Chicago has seen eight or more total runs scored in seven of its last eight games (88%) while the Astros have seen eight or more total runs scored in nine of their last 11 games (82%).
As I mentioned earlier, Verlander has been dominant this season which is why this total is set so low. However, this current White Sox roster has had success against the right-hander as they boast a .281 BA, .552 SLG, and .373 wOBA through 103 career plate appearances.
