Major League Baseball finishes up before the All-Star break on Sunday with 14 games on tap. Unlike most Sundays, there is no Sunday Night Baseball in primetime tonight, but our Action Network MLB analysts still have you covered with three best bets, including several plays on Red Sox vs. Yankees from the Bronx. Check out their picks and analysis below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tony Sartori: Like the Royals, the Blue Jays have been involved in many high-scoring games over the past month as there have been nine or more runs scored in 18 of their past 27 games (67%). I am backing the trends in this contest and taking the over. Both of these starting pitchers are awful, and each bullpen is fade-worthy.
The Royals lineup has had success against a struggling Jose Berrios, despite missing some of their bigger names. The Blue Jays can hit well against anyone, but they should fare especially well against Kris Bubic at home.
Through 14 appearances this season, Bubic is 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Bubic's metrics are just as awful as he possesses a .394 xwOBA, .305 xBA and a .533 xSLG.
I would rather lay more juice on the total at nine than take the over at 9.5 if the number moves.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Tanner McGrath: Chris Sale has upside. If he pitches as well as he did against Tampa Bay, the Red Sox will have a very good chance to win this game. Plus, the Yankees are slightly worse against lefties this season.
However, there's also a chance Sale was lucky against Tampa and is about to have a rude wake-up call against the best lineup in baseball.
In the meantime, Cole may continue to get shellacked by a Boston offense that seems to have his number.
I'd say the Yankees have the bullpen advantage in this game, but that unit has looked increasingly shaky in recent weeks. Plus, Boston ranks 10th in MLB in reliever xFIP over the past two weeks (3.51).
All this leads me in two directions.
First, the Red Sox clearly pose value at such a high number and I would feel comfortable playing their ML at BetRivers at +180, with value down to +150.
Second, the over is good as long as the number sticks at 8. It has been bumped down to 7.5 this morning, with the best value at PointsBet at +100. It's also worth mentioning that these games have gone over the past six times the Yankees and Red Sox have matched up.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
William Boor: Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that doesn't seem to bother Rafael Devers. One of the best hitters in the game, Devers has dominated Cole in a matchup between two of the game's premier players.
Sure, the sample size is small, but Devers is 8-for-25 (.320) with six homers (eight strikeouts) and a 1.040 Slugging percentage against Cole. Those numbers are gaudy, but a quick look at the advanced metrics also shows they are legitimate as both Devers' xBA (.315) and xSLG (.919) are right in line with the actual numbers.
Those hits haven't been cheap ones either as Devers has an Average Exit Velocity of 96.3 mph when facing the Yankees' ace. Boston's star hit a pair of homers off Cole the last time these two met (July 7), so it's likely Devers has even more confidence heading into Sunday's matinee. Add in the fact that Devers is swinging a hot bat with hits in five straight games and in 10 of his past 11 games, and it seems likely he'll turn in another strong performance.
I'm backing Devers to log two or more total bases, but if you want to swing a bit bigger, you can back Devers to collect two or more hits (+260) or to homer (+285).
