MLB Odds, Predictions Today | Picks for Braves vs Phillies NLDS Game 4 (Thursday, October 12)
Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Strider
Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Wednesday's LDS matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
I project the Houston Astros as either a favorite or a pick'em price in five of their seven potential ALCS games with their in-state and AL West rival Texas Rangers.
I would need -130 to back the Astros on the series line before Game 1. Conversely, I want around +155 or better to fire on the Rangers. The Astros opened between -140 and -150, with the Rangers between +130 and +120, so I doubt we will play either side of the series before Game 1.
I also project the Braves as the favorites over each of the final two games in their NLDS matchup with the Phillies, but would still set Atlanta as roughly +200 underdogs to win the pair of contests consecutively.
I would typically want at least +215 to back Atlanta or -180 to play Philadelphia to find an actionable edge compared to my projected number. The best available prices at open showed Philadelphia as a -250 favorite, with Atlanta as a +200 underdog, and I doubt we will find an edge in the NLDS series market before Game 4.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 4
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -154 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
Spencer Strider vs. Ranger Suárez (full projections here)
I previewed this same pitching matchup last Saturday, losing a first five innings (F5) bet on Atlanta at -185 — which closed at -210 — while splitting a pair of under props against Ranger Suárez, who the Phillies replaced after 13 hitters. It was roughly the same scripted approach that they took in their NLDS Game 1 victory in Atlanta last season.
Suárez (4.36 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, 97 Pitching+) threw the ball well on Saturday, but I doubt the Phillies will give him a longer leash in Game 4.
Aaron Nola pitched into the sixth inning on Tuesday, and with an off-day scheduled for Friday and Zack Wheeler available to go at least six innings in a potential Game 5, Rob Thomson should be extremely aggressive with his bullpen against Atlanta for a third consecutive playoff game behind Suárez.
I recommended Suárez to record Under 13.5 outs in Game 1, and the same prop surprisingly opened at 14.5 for Game 4. Bet Suárez Under 14.5 outs to -190, Under 14 to -160, Under 13.5 to -130, or Under 13 to +100.
For the same reason, bet Kevin Pillar to record under 0.5 hits or under 0.5 total bases. Pillar started Game 1 in the nine-hole against Suárez, had one plate appearance, and was substituted for the left-handed Eddie Rosario. The right-handed Pillar also pinch-hit for Rosario in Game 2, and clearly, the Braves are platooning the pair.
Spencer Strider rated as well as any pitcher this season, finishing first among qualified starters by both xFIP (2.93) and Pitching+ (112) while ranking second behind Pablo López in xERA (3.02). Still, Strider underachieved with a 3.86 ERA, about an entire run higher than his 2023 expected marks or his rookie year results (2.67 ERA, 2.30 xFIP).
And while he's held the Phillies to a .505 OPS with a 32% K-BB% across 146 regular season appearances, and was primarily dominant in Game 1 (37% CSW%,), I can't get the images from Game 3 of the NLDS last season out of my head. When Strider returned from a nearly month-long layoff, he got shelled at Citizens Bank Park.
He's in much finer form — and better health — this season, but The Bank is seemingly one of the most raucous home environments in all of sports right now. Even though Strider had a pair of quality starts — with 18 combined strikeouts — in Philadelphia this season, the energy is different in the playoffs.
I project Strider and the Braves as -160 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -137 favorites for the full game on Thursday. You can bet Atlanta in the first half (F5) to -145, which is currently just out of range (best price -150). However, I don't see value concerning the full-game pricing unless you want to further hedge Braves futures.
I set the game total at 8.03 runs and would bet Under 9 to -127 or Under 8 to -108.
Sides and Totals for Thursday, October 12
- Atlanta Braves / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 9 (-120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -127 or 8, -108)
Prop Bets for Thursday, October 12
- Kevin Pillar, Under 0.5 Hits (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Ranger Suarez, Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-150, 0.4u) at DraftKings (bet to -160 or 13.5, -130 or 13 (+100)
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