With all 30 teams in action and first pitches spanning from 1:15 until 9:45 p.m. ET, we have a full slate of baseball this Wednesday — and our MLB betting analysts are here to help you quickly identify the best bets on the board.
Find their top picks and predictions based on MLB odds for this Wednesday below, featuring multiple analysts on the Orioles-Yankees moneyline and unders to bookend your card.
MLB Odds & Picks
Dodgers at Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: The under has hit in first two games of this series as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks look to make it three in a row on Wednesday.
Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen seems to have returned to form as he's been throwing the ball well so far in 2022. He faced the Mets in both of his starts this season and was able to hold one of the best offenses in baseball at bay, allowing only one earned run over nine innings.
Additionally, the Diamondbacks have the 28th-worst home offense in terms of team wRC+ and are dead-last in team wRC+ against LHP.
Julio Urias, a lefty, is on the mound for the Dodgers — and his recent history would indicate that the road is actually his preferred place to pitch. In 2021, his ERA was a full run better and his FIP was a half run better on the road than at home. He also sports a 0.86 ERA at Chase Field.
The combination of Urias and the Diamondbacks offense against a LHP means the Dodgers will have to carry the total if the over is going to hit.
However, Gallen seems to elevate his game against the Dodgers. He has a career 2.88 ERA in seven starts against them. Considering he's already faced what is arguably the MLB's best offense in the Mets, he should be up for the challenge of facing the Dodgers.
The under has remained steady at eight runs and the pitching matchup in a spacious Chase Field seems to be conducive to low run scoring. The under should be a good play up to 7.5 runs or the -120 threshold at 8.
Orioles at Yankees
Game +230 at Wynn | |
Sean Zerillo: Jordan Montgomery faced the Orioles in Baltimore on April 15 and closed as a -215 favorite (68.2% implied) against Jordan Lyles (5.45 model weighted ERA), who I rank as a substantially inferior pitcher as compared to his teammate, Tyler Wells (4.39 model weighted ERA).
Jameson Taillon and the Yankees closed at -185 (64.9% implied) against Wells the following day. And on paper, I don't see much separation between Taillon (4.15 weighted ERA) and Montgomery (4.08).
Montgomery presents an ideal matchup for Baltimore in terms of splits. The Orioles rank around 9% better (in my model) against lefties as opposed to righties; after carrying a 101 wRC+ against southpaw pitching last season (12th) and an 85 wrC+ against righties (27th).
In a short 2022 sample, they rank 7% better against left-handed pitching.
As a result, we can take that Taillon vs. Wells line (-185) in Baltimore, add around 7-8% for the flip in home-field advantage, and arrive at a projection of roughly -262 to -270 for where the book would hang the line. Deduct around 1-2% for the handedness splits, and you fall somewhere between -240 and -250 — the same range where the Yankees number lies for Tuesday.
Still, I bet the Wells vs. Taillon matchup because I projected that line closer to +140 instead of available odds at the open (+175). And I happily bet Wells against the Yankees again here, with a superior offensive matchup and a similarly significant edge.
I projected the Orioles moneyline at +177 (36%) for Tuesday, and you can bet that number down to +195, at a 2% edge compared to my projection. If you can get -110 or better on the run line or spread (+1.5), I would add that, too.
Moreover, I bet the Orioles in the first five innings, both on the moneyline (down to +176) and the spread (either +1 to -110 or +0.5 to +120).
To be clear, I expect to lose these bets around 61-64% of the time; it's not like I make the Orioles anything close to a favorite in this matchup. Still, I suspect they can win this game close to four out of 10 times, while the market gives them only a three-in-10 probability. And if I get nine other spots this valuable in 2022, I expect to come out ahead by betting them every time.
Orioles at Yankees
DJ James: The Orioles have the MLB's most valuable bullpen at the moment — a sentence most would not expect to type more than one day into the season. They will face Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees with Tyler Wells on the mound.
Montgomery carved up this O’s lineup the first time facing them, permitting only five baserunners. That should change here.
Last season, Trey Mancini, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo all posted a .350+ xwOBA on Montgomery — he even had a couple of outings in which he looked shaky, as any pitcher would when you face a lineup five times in a season.
Since this will be only 12 days after the last time they matched up, the Orioles have value.
In addition, last season, Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Urías, and Kelvin Gutiérrez all posted .345+ xwOBA when facing lefty sinkers, which Montgomery will utilize nearly 30% of the time.
The Baltimore bullpen also has nine arms with a sub-4.00 xFIP and four with 10+ K/9. The Orioles should take care of business with this Yankees lineup.
Yes, the Yankee bullpen is likely stronger longterm, but the O’s at +190 or better is worth the bet. Maybe a sprinkle on the run line would be less risky, if that suits you. All that matters is Wells keeping the O’s in striking distance.
Astros at Rangers
Kenny Ducey: I think Glenn Otto might be good.
Sure, he did nothing in 23 ⅓ innings last season but stink. He also had a poor spring. Outside of that roughly 30-inning sample, though, the right-hander has been pretty effective. He owns a 2.92 career ERA across all levels in the minor leagues and had a 2.65 ERA during his time in Triple-A. On top of all of that, he averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine.
All that to say, there may be something behind Otto’s solid 2022 debut, which saw him allow just a run on two hits and a walk over five innings with five strikeouts. It’s possible the sample size in his rookie year was small, and the 26-year-old is ready to be a perfectly average pitcher at minimum.
Helping his cause will be the Astros, who currently rank 23rd in baseball with a miserable 3.59 runs per game. This Houston offense may score just a couple runs, which should guide this game toward the under.
Talented youngster Cristian Javier will re-debut in the rotation on Wednesday, and he’s yet to allow a run in nearly nine innings of relief work. His high whiff rates and strikeout numbers make him a tantalizing option against Texas tonight, and together, Otto and Javier should have themselves a pitcher’s duel.
