With a full 15-game slate on the board for Tuesday, there's a number of spots I am looking to find value, with four games in particular sticking out.
Below, you'll find my favorite bets for this evening's MLB slate.
Giants vs. Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET · Alex Cobb vs. Jack Flaherty
This is the perfect sell-high spot on two pitchers who are pitching above expectations through the first two months.
Let’s start with Alex Cobb, who’s xERA (4.07) sits a run higher than actual (3.01). He’s posted his lowest barrel rate, xBA, xSLG and hard-hit% since 2020, yet has used timely ground balls to escape jams.
Cobb does not generate many whiffs and is a below-average pitcher who has posted an unsustainable 81.6 LOB%. That’s 10% higher than his career average, for reference.
The Cardinals bats have a great matchup against Cobb. They’re top 10 in just about every offensive matchup against right-handed pitching, most notably sixth in wRC+. SF also sets up to be shorthanded after last night’s nail-biter, using Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval heavily to secure the win.
I also like this matchup for the Giants bats. Jack Flaherty has been running hot — 18 1/3 innings, 16 hits and 7 walks but just TWO runs — despite expected metrics sitting in the mid-4s.
Flaherty often runs into command issues (13.2 BB%) and is in the bottom 10% in chase rate, which should prove beneficial for SF. The Giants are fourth in BB% against right-handed pitching and are top six in wRC+, isolated power and wOBA.
This is a lefty-heavy lineup and one that should find plenty of success with the wind blowing out to right center at 11 mph in 80-degree temperatures on Tuesday night. Based on a 27-game sample at RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge, we expect to see a 36.3% increase in HRs and 10.1% increase in runs.
I love the idea of fading both starting pitchers and a relatively taxed bullpen on both fronts. Without Ryan Helsley in the back end, St. Louis could see some struggles, too. I would back the over 8.5 up to 9 (-110).
Angels vs. Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET · Jaime Barria vs. TBD
In a thrilling extra-inning bout between American League West foes, the Angels outlasted the Rangers on Monday night. I like them to continue their success as underdogs given the recent scratch of Jon Gray.
Cody Bradford is in Arlington and is the expected fill-in for Gray. He’s made two starts in the majors this year and has a 7.20 ERA and a home run per 9 that nears 2. While he has been incredible at Triple-A — 1.82 ERA in 10 starts — he’s benefited from an 84 LOB% and 5.79 xFIP.
He has an extremely low ground ball rate — 28.6% — and that poses as an issue against a hot-hitting Angels offense. They are top 10 in most metrics against southpaws, notably wRC+ and isolated power.
Jaime Barria takes the mound for LAA, and he’s had a career turnaround. He ranks in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit% and has seen his strikeout rate jump nearly 7% from last season.
A lot of that has to do with his change in pitch mix. He’s throwing his sinker a lot less and relying on his four-seam and changeup, which has in turn limited barrels and induced softer contact. He also has a 66.3 LOB%, which should positively regress given his advanced metrics across the board.
The Angels have the better bullpen and the offenses are about even — slight edge to Texas — in these splits. But the starting pitching matchup is too stark and I would back the Angels on the moneyline down to (+100).
Marlins vs. Mariners
9:40 p.m. ET · Edward Cabrera vs. George Kirby
George Kirby has been zig-zagging good and bad starts and this is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the right-hander at a cheap (-145) price.
Kirby has elite command and the peripherals to match a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm and he’s shored up his barrel rate from a season ago. His biggest issue has been generating swings and misses — he does have a high chase rate, but can’t consistently strike out opponents — but if he’s locating around the edges he’s near unhittable.
The Marlins offense ranks in the bottom 10 across the board in wOBA, wRC+ and isolated power against right-handed pitching. I’m expecting more of the eight shutout innings we saw from Kirby as opposed to the 3 2/3 innings of five-run ball against San Diego. This is a way weaker offense.
Edward Cabrera lines up opposite Kirby and his command has been the biggest concern (14 BB%). His average exit velocity is about league average, and Cabrera’s near double-digit barrel rate is a concern when he’s not locating. He in turn feeds the strike zone harder, which leads to higher-danger chances for the opponents.
I’m selling Cabrera after strong back-to-back starts against the Athletics and Royals. He threw 11 innings of one-run ball, but it was against two of the worst offenses in baseball. It’s also notable that in seven road games, he has a 5.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.53.
Seattle has the No. 1 bullpen in xFIP and is 11th in BB% against right-handed pitching. This is a disciplined offense that has been much better as of late and I would back them up to (-150).
Guardians vs. Padres
9:40 p.m. ET · Tanner Bibee vs. Joe Musgrove
I am once again backing a Joe Musgrove under. The right-hander has finally found his groove after working back from injury early on and is a big positive regression candidate as June trudges on.
Musgrove’s xERA is down at 3.10, over a run lower than actual (4.36). His peripherals are impressive, too. His xBA (.212) is the lowest since 2020, and he’s relying more heavily on his fastball and changeup rather than his slider.
Overall in his last three starts, Musgrove has thrown 17 1/3 innings of three-run ball — two earned — with just 13 hits and 17 strikeouts. He’s generating a lot more chases and swings and misses as he gets more comfortable on the mound and returns to his dominant self.
Tanner Bibee matches up opposite Musgrove and he’s also been a strong arm in his rookie season. Mainly a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and slider carrying Stuff+ ratings above 100, Bibee sits in the mid 3s per most advanced metrics.
He is above average across the board in xBA, xSLG and BB% and is reliable the first time through the order. While he’s about league average in whiff rate, Bibee has flashed strikeout potential.
Bibee’s biggest issue is as the order turns over a third time. But Cleveland should have a quick hook for him if the game remains close — which is what I expect.
The Guardians' offense ranks 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while the Padres are at 19th. Given the fact I like Padres as a side here, that’s three fewer outs and another bonus toward liking the under.
With the wind blowing in at about 6 mph, I would back the under 7.5 runs.
