Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.
I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Expert Picks for Friday, April 7
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Edward Cabera vs. Tylor Megill
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
Rain and windy weather forced the Mets to postpone their home opener on Thursday, but the conditions should be even more favorable for pitchers on Friday.
Temperatures will drop 20 degrees overnight (from the 70s to the 50s), and the wind direction will flip at Citi Field, with 12-mph winds blowing in from left field for Friday afternoon.
I projected the total at 7.37 and would bet Under 8 to -115. I projected the first five innings (F5) total at 4.01 and would bet an F5 Under 4.5 to -122.
Lastly, I projected the Marlins as +141 underdogs in this matchup, and you can play the fish on the moneyline to +155.
In the same matchup at home, we bet the Marlins as +110 underdogs for a line that closed -114 consensus. Based solely on a home-field adjustment, it would be difficult to put a +110 underdog past +150 on the park switch, and a -114 home favorite shouldn't go higher than about +120 in the same matchup on the road.
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Marcus Stroman
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
We'll get to some other miserable midwestern weather — note the obvious theme in this piece.
With temperatures in the mid-40s — and 9 mph winds blowing in from right field at Wrigley on Friday — my weather adjustments knocked the totals down to 3.1 and 6.25 for the first five innings and full game, respectively.
Bet an F5 Under 3.5 to -114, or play the full game Under down to 6.5 (+100).
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Hunter Greene vs. Zack Wheeler
First Pitch: 3:05 p.m. ET
Similar to the weather at Citi Field, Citizens Bank Park — just two hours south — will see temperatures in the high 50s, with the wind blowing in from the left field fence on Friday afternoon, resulting in beneficial conditions for the pitchers.
Moreover, I have bets on both Hunter Greene and Zack Wheeler for NL Cy Young, so I am extremely high on both starting pitchers relative to the betting market.
And as a result, I have bets on the Unders in this matchup.
After adjusting for the weather, I projected the total at 6.81; you can bet Under 7.5 to -117. Additionally, I projected the F5 total at 3.37; you can play F5 Under 4 to -130 or F5 Under 3.5 to +104.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Clarke Schmidt vs. Dean Kremer
First Pitch: 3:05 p.m. ET
Sticking with our theme of northeast wind and weather, we find similar conditions in Baltimore, too; temperatures in the high 50s, with the wind blowing in from the deep left field fence that proved so problematic for right-handed hitters at Camden Yards last April.
I projected this game total at 8.3 and would bet the Under 9 to -118 or an Under 8.5 at plus money.
However, I don't see value concerning the F5 total (projected 4.55), meaning I am likely higher on these two bullpens than the betting market — as opposed to the starting pitchers.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Jose Urquidy vs. Sonny Gray
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Pivoting from poor northeast weather to poor Midwest weather affecting totals, we find the first of consecutive games triggering our extremely profitable Action Labs criteria for wind, which I have cited throughout the week:
I'll continually reiterate that I am not a system bettor; I have a process for adjusting my park factors and totals based on wind and weather information. However, I'm always happy to see when an Under wager aligns with this system.
Temperatures will be in the low 40s in Minnesota, with the wind blowing straight in from center field on Friday.
I projected this total at 7.23 and would bet the Under down to 7.5 (-102). You can also consider betting an F5 Under 4.5 down to -125 (projected 3.95).
Lastly, you can bet the Twins' moneyline if it comes back into range (up to -116); I was fortunate to grab an early line.
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
Logan Gilbert vs. Aaron Civale
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The weather in Cleveland will be nearly identical to the weather in Minnesota on Friday; temperatures will be in the low 40s, with 7-8 mph winds blowing in from dead center.
Astros vs. Twins and Mariners vs. Guardians triggered the above Action Labs system for wind. When an incredibly intuitive system generates an 8.8% return over two decades, you should probably pay attention.
I assumed the market would have caught up with it by now, but the system has won at a 55.5% clip (6.9% ROI) over the past four seasons alone.
I projected the game total at 6.8 and the F5 total at 3.76. You can bet Under 7 at any plus money price; and play F5 Under 4 to -105.
Additionally, I see value in the Guardians in this matchup — up to -111 in the F5 market and -115 for the full game.
I give a slight edge to Logan Gilbert in the starting pitching matchup, but the bullpens and lineups are a relative wash, aside from Cleveland's speed and defense, where I project them for a relatively significant advantage; enough to swing my projected line closer to -125.
Zerillo's Bets for Friday, April 7
For additional bet notifications – and all of my price targets – follow me in the Action Network App.
- ArizonaDiamondbacks (+195, 0.5u) at WynnBet
- Cincinnati Reds / Philadelphia Phillies F5 Under 3.5 (+112, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Cincinnati Reds / Philadelphia Phillies Under 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at WynnBet
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-104, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Cleveland Guardians (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Houston Astros / Minnesota Twins, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Kansas City Royals (+188, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Miami Marlins (+160, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Miami Marlins / New York Mets, F5 Under 4.5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Miami Marlins / New York Mets, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at WynnBet
- Milwaukee Brewers (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Minnesota Twins (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- New York Yankees / Baltimore Orioles Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at WynnBet)
- Oakland Athletics (+215, 0.25u) at WynnBet
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 0.5u) at WynnBet
- Seattle Mariners / Cleveland Guardians, Under 7 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars
- TexasRangers / Chicago Cubs, Under 7 (-112, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Toronto Blue Jays (+115, 0.5u at WynnBet)
- WashingtonNationals (+125, 0.5u) at DraftKings
