Indians vs. White Sox Odds & Pick (Friday, August 7): Bet on High-Scoring First Five

Indians vs. White Sox Odds

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With the Minnesota Twins starting to run away with the American League Central, Friday's game is important for the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox if they want to keep pace in the division.

This matchup will be Round 2 between Aaron Civale and Dylan Cease. Civale won the first round 4-3 back on July 28. We'll see if either pitcher/offense makes any adjustments after seeing each other once already.

Indians

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Before their 13-run outburst last night, Cleveland's bats have been really quiet to begin the season. The Indians were averaging 2.61 runs per game before last night, which is alarming for an offense that was projected to compete near the top of the AL. Maybe their 13 runs against the Reds last night finally got their offense back on track.

Indians Projected Starter

Aaron Civale, RHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Civale has been pretty good through his first two starts allowing five earned on 12 hits in 12 innings of work. He's been a strikeout machine sitting down 18 batters, mostly on his cutter (7 strikeouts). His xFIP through his first 12 innings is a stunning 1.56, which is the third-best mark in baseball among qualified pitchers through the first two weeks of the season.

Aaron Civale had an interesting 2019. He posted a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts, but his xFIP was all the way up to 4.61, indicating he was a tad lucky in 2019. He's mainly a sinker ball guy in 2019, with a nasty wipe out slider. His slider was so good that opponents got just two hits off it in 124 pitches last season.

However, in 2020 he has featured his cutter more than any other pitch and gone away from his sinker. His cutter has been highly effective, allowing a .176 wOBA through his first 12 innings.

Since we had such a small sample size of Civale, it's hard to say if his stellar pitching performances will continue or if he will regress toward the mean.

White Sox

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The South Siders have been hot offensively to begin the season. Chicago ranks third in MLB with a .341 wOBA and 126 wRC+ through their first 13 games. They've been led by their young studs Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Yoan Moncada, who all have wOBAs above .390 to start the season. Civale shut down those three guys the first time around, but I think he'll have difficulty keeping them quiet in Round 2.

White Sox Projected Starter

Dylan Cease, RHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Cease got shelled in round one against the Indians giving up four earned on seven hits in only 2.1 innings of work. He rebounded in his second start against the Royals, only allowing two earned over six innings.

He had a rough first year in the show in 2019. Cease had some concerning numbers like a 1.55 WHIP, 4.32 BB/9 and 1.85 HR/9. Much of his issues were because of his fastball, which got shelled last season.

Although Cease has a lot of velocity on his fastball, it doesn't have a lot of movement. Opponents teed off on that lack of movement with a .448 wOBA last season.

Cease's complimentary slider and curveball were successful in 2019. He's using his fastball more often so far in 2020 than 2019, so if he wants to be successful, he's going to have to incorporate his slider and curveball more into is arsenal.

Bullpens

Cleveland got a great start from Carlos Carrasco last night, so their main horses in the bullpen got the day off. Chicago's bullpen has only been required for five innings the past two nights, so they should be full rested as well.

Projections and Pick

I think the combination of Civale and Cease is going to produce a lot of runs. So, I am going to look at the first five innings total for this game. Since I have 5.61 runs projected for the first five innings, I am going to back Over 4.5 runs at -132 (BetRivers), but I would only bet it up to -136.

Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-132)

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