MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Mets vs. Braves (Monday, August 3)

Mets vs. Braves Odds

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Braves will go for a sweep and a 2.5-game lead in the NL East on Monday as they send out ace Mike Soroka to face the Mets and Jacob deGrom.

The two starters met on opening day, with deGrom winning 1-0 on a Yoenis Cespedes solo shot. Things have changed a lot since then for the Mets, who are teetering on a full on implosion. Cespedes flat out did not show up to the ballpark yesterday and, through his agent, decided to opt out.

A sweep by Braves could send Mets fans into full on rage.

Mets Projected Lineup

The Mets offense has been fairly decent to begin the season, posting a .328 wOBA and 113 wRC+ through their first 10 games.

They struggled versus Soroka the first time around, though, producing only four hits over six innings. Soroka's slider is deadly and the Mets typically struggle against them, so it'll be interested to see how they fair against him the second time.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Mets Projected Starter

Jacob deGrom, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

deGrom has looked like his usual self to open the 2020 season. He's been untouchable through his first two starts, allowing only two earned on four hits in 11 innings of work. His fastball has been literally untouchable as he has not allowed a hit so far in 70 pitches.

deGrom usually uses a three-pitch arsenal of a fastball, slider and changeup. His fastball may be the best in all of baseball. He averages around 97 mph and can top out at 100 mph. It has crazy movement, too, which makes it almost impossible to hit at that high of a velocity.

His slider and changeup work tremendously off his fastball and were a problem for hitters in 2019. Both pitches produced a whiff rate higher than 35% and am opposing wOBA of less than .225.

deGrom dominated the Braves in their first meeting, but we'll see if they can figure him out in the second.

Braves Projected Lineup

The Braves offense has been middle-of-the-road to begin the season with a .322 wOBA and 103 wRC+. They've been hitting the ball well over the first three games of this series, producing 22 runs on 27 hits.

The Braves struggled mightily in their first game against deGrom, so we'll see if they'll have success against him on Monday.

Braves Projected Starter

Mike Soroka, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Soroka has been stellar through his first two starts, allowing only two earned runs on eight hits in 11.1 innings of work. He was really good in his start against the Mets on opening day, throwing six scoreless innings.

Soroka is on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's primarily a sinker ball guy, and it was decently effective in 2019, producing a .319 wOBA against.

His best pitch is by far his slider, which is almost unhittable. In 2019, it produced a 38.5% whiff rate and held batters to a .154 average. As you can see below, it has some sick movement.

Soroka has actually utilized his slider the most of any of his pitches through his first two starts. The Mets struggled mightily against sliders last season with -29.3 weighted slider runs.

Look for Soroka to throw his slider a lot on Monday night.

Mets-Braves Bullpens

Both bullpens haven't been called much over the past two days, so they should be fully rested for this game.

As you can see, the Mets have the advantage in the bullpen matchup.

Mets-Braves Projections & Pick

It's always scary betting against deGrom, but the Braves are undervalued on Monday night. I'm backing Atlanta at +114, but I would only bet it down to +112.

THE PICK: Braves +114

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]