There's a jam-packed slate of MLB games this Sunday. There are 18 games in total, including three double-headers. Our MLB analysts have found three best bets they love, including plays on Marlins-Padres and Dodgers-Cubs. Check out their analysis and picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Nicholas Martin: Both of these clubs are solid candidates for positive offensive regression and get a favorable starting pitching matchup to find it Sunday.
The Red Sox are middle of the pack with regards to Hard-Hit and xSLG Rates, and they get a tremendous opportunity to find more production against Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel has pitched to an xERA of 5.03 this season as it certainly seems he is well past his prime. Keuchel's heavily diminished fastball velocity and low spin rates have left hardly any batters fooled this year. He's pitched to just a 9.4% Strikeout Rate with a 13.4% Walk Rate.
Michael Wacha has been tremendous so far this season, pitching to a 3.17 xERA in 26 innings. Yet with his low fastball velocity and low spin-rate, it seems reasonable to expect his results to trend closer to what we saw in 2021.
The White Sox have hit the ball hard themselves, with a 44.1% Hard-Hit Rate this season and the league's third-highest xSLG Rate at .495. It seems the production we expected from this lineup should come soon.
This seems like a great time to buy low on this total. Each team is not producing as effectively at the plate as I believe they will moving forward, and Michael Wacha is probably at a high-water point.
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Jules Posner: While the Padres have certainly played well this season, they have overachieved to a degree. After Saturday's loss, their Pythagorean W-L record slipped to around 16-12.
The Marlins would have a slightly worse mark, but considering this match may come down to the bullpens, the Marlins have the overall edge in this game.
Additionally, the Marlins moneyline is a great value considering this game is more of a coin toss than it seems. Chase the payout and take the Marlins moneyline at plus-money.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Tanner McGrath: Fellow Action Network MLB expert Sean Zerillo projects the Cubs at roughly +150 for the full game, and I'm inclined to agree. Consequently, odds of +190 at BetRivers are far too generous.
Through the first month of this season, the Dodgers are first in MLB in reliever FIP and xFIP (2.69 and 2.98, respectively). But while the Cubs are 18th in reliever FIP (3.69), they are tied for first with the Dodgers in xFIP (2.98).
My point is that the Cubs are slightly undervalued right now. The lineup has been horrid, and I'm low on Marcus Stroman. However, we should be able to buy low on the Cubs in the coming days and weeks, and I'm excited to start here.
If I'm catching over +160 with Stroman and the Cubs on Sunday Night, I'll be on that side.
