Major League Baseball returns from the All-Star Break today with a weird, abbreviated, seven-game slate that includes a pair of doubleheaders.
While Astros–Yankees and Tigers–Athletics make up four of the seven games, our analysts are instead looking toward the latest game on the slate: Giants vs. Dodgers.
Two of our analysts recommend this game as their favorite bet, and they're both on the same side, too.
Here are our best bets from Thursday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Giants vs. Dodgers
Jules Posner: The San Francisco Giants were able to rattle off a modest three-game win streak heading into the All-Star Break and now they'll open the second half at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Carlos Rodon will get the ball for the Giants and he'll be making his third start of the season against the Dodgers and his second in Los Angeles. Over 12 innings, he's only surrendered two earned runs against the Dodgers and the Dodgers' offense has only been middle-of-the-pack against LHP at home this season.
Mitch White is slated to start for the Dodgers and he has struggled to find his footing so far this season. Although the Giants' offense has struggled on the road against RHP over the past few weeks, they are still one of the better road offenses overall.
The Giants' pen has been shaky at times, but the Dodgers bullpen isn't without fault either. This matchup is mainly going to center around how Rodon performs.
The Giants' moneyline is in plus money and with an ace like Rodon on the mound, their moneyline is definitely work the risk.
Giants vs. Dodgers
Kenny Ducey: Mitch White has not had a good season. His ERA currently sits at 4.20, and that’s due in large part to the fact that he’s allowing fewer ground balls (7.1% lower rate than 2021) and striking out fewer batters (3.1% lower). That’s magnified his poor .248 expected batting average and .368 xwOBA on contact and shown the world the pitcher he really is.
I just really don’t like this matchup for White against a team ranked 14th in strikeout rate and which has the seventh-lowest ground ball rate in the game.
If I don’t like the matchup for White, I really, really don’t like it for the Dodgers against Carlos Rodon. The southpaw has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings against the Dodgers this season, and on the whole L.A. has been pretty terrible against lefties with an 11th-ranked wRC+ in the first half. That may not sound too bad, but considering the Dodgers are right near the very top of the league in almost every category, it’s proof that they are simply not as good in this split.
Anyway, I think the matchup here really presents a ton of value. The Dodgers should really struggle at the plate, and they’ll need a big effort to get a win behind White.
