Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Odds
| Pirates Odds | +190 [Bet Now] |
| White Sox Odds | -235 [Bet Now] |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (u-124) [Bet Now] |
| First Pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
Odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Wow! What a ballgame baseball fans were treated to last night at Guaranteed Rate Field. Lucas Giolito spun an absolute gem for the White Sox, throwing the first no-hitter in 2020 and racking up thirteen strikeouts with just one walk over 101 pitches.
Today’s game could be another quality one given the level of pitchers set to take the mound. Veteran lefty, Dallas Keuchel, will take the ball for the White Sox while the Pirates will counter with Trevor Williams.
Williams may feel a bit of nostalgia in this start after he himself flirted with a no-hitter through six innings in 2018, but was pulled due to an elevated pitch count.
He’ll know better than anyone that yesterday's performance puts the momentum squarely with Chicago. And it’ll be an uphill challenge for the Pirates to wrestle it back.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Trevor Williams is 1-4 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over five starts. But his 4.22 FIP, which is higher than his ERA, could be a signal for some regression in the near future.
He has a 2.93 BB/9 ratio as he’s been known to try to nibble around the corners of home plate. Williams will often look to bail himself out by getting a strikeout which is evident by his 8.51 K/9 ratio.
What would be concerning to me if I was a Pirates fan is his relatively low 1:1 GB/FB ratio. Pittsburgh's opponent today is ranked third in the majors for home runs with 55. If Williams struggles to keep the ball down against this lot, it could be a quick hook and off to the showers for the right-hander.
Another issue for Williams has been his inability to go deep into games. He's has gone past five innings just once this season and he’s yet to throw 100 pitches in a ballgame. his last start, he was pulled after throwing 90 pitches in just four innings. This puts added stress on an already fragile bullpen that is ranked 23rd in the league with 5.25 ERA.
Chicago White Sox
Dallas Keuchel would also know how hard it is to throw a no-hitter. While he’s yet to achieve this feat, he’s taken a no-no into the seventh inning on two occasions over his nine-year career. He’ll look to keep the momentum going for a White Sox team that is 8-2 in its last 10 games.
Keuchel has been in a nice groove in his own right. He’s 4-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. While his 3.40 FIP, which is also higher than his ERA, suggests some possible regression in the future, there’s a lot to like about this pitcher.
Keuchel doesn’t give many free passes and he’s stingy with the long ball. His walk rate and home run rate are 1.69 BB/9 and 0.48 HR/9, respectively. Perhaps even more impressive is his 2.92 GB/FB ratio. Per Baseball Savant, Keuchel predominantly throws his sinker, which is topping out around 88 mph. Hitters generally aren’t going to do a whole lot with that pitch and oftentimes will just roll it over.
Another pitch that's given Keuchel success is his cutter. Over his career he's steadily increased his usage of this pitch from 10.9% in 2016 to 31.2% in 2020. Batters are hitting just .167 against that pitch this season with a 24.2% whiff rate.
Betting Analysis
For me, today's game has to do with which team has the motivational edge. I mean, which clubhouse would your rather be in right now? The White Sox clubhouse must be filled with euphoria while the Pirates are feeling deflated at the moment. And they know it won't get any easier with Keuchel on the mound.
To support my theory, I queried how teams have performed the day after they've been no-hit.
Going back to 2004, teams in this situational spot are 16-34 on the moneyline for -20.6 units while on the run line they're 20-28 for -11.91 units.
If we look to key in on the White Sox' spot, such teams are 34-16 for +18.6 units and 28-20 on the run line for +9.78 units.
And if we refine our query to just include day games, such teams are 13-6 for 8.17 units and 13-5 on the run line for 10.1 units.
At the current price to back the favorite on the moneyline I'd have to lay greater than 2-1 and I'm never looking to lay odds at that price.
Instead, DraftKings' run line price of -107 is more to my liking and I think it's worth it to back the favorite in this spot.
The wind will be blowing out to left field at 11 mph, which should favor a White Sox team that is leading the majors with a .479 SLG, while the Pirates are third from last with a .349 SLG.
I'll take the Pale Hose to win by a two-run margin at Guaranteed Rate Field.
The PICK: White Sox run line -107 (play up to -120) [Bet it at +103 with a 10% profit boost at DraftKings (now online in Illinois!)]
