With all 30 MLB teams playing on Sunday, our Action Network MLB staff has found four best bets worth tailing. They are targeting moneylines in four different matchups, including the highly anticipated Sunday Night Baseball clash between the Yankees and Red Sox. Check out their picks and analysis below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
| Sandy Alcantara vs. Taijuan Walker | |
Tony Sartori: I think Baltimore completes the sweep here. No offense to Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, who are unquestionably two of the top three baseball players in the world, but the Angels are awful.
While the Angels enter this game on a losing streak, the Baltimore Orioles have been playing their best ball all season as they currently ride a seven-game win streak. I expect this trend to continue as the Orioles are slated to go with right-hander Austin Voth on the mound.
Voth is really a reliever who is stepping into the starting rotation for the time being, and I do not suspect he will go any longer than four innings. This means Baltimore will rely on its bullpen for the majority of the game. This is a big benefit in this matchup as they boast one of the most underrated and talented bullpens in the league. Since June 1st, the Orioles' relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, ninth in BA, 14th in SLG and seventh in wOBA.
Baltimore has been on the come-up all year, especially recently as the Orioles continue to find ways to win baseball games. This team is sneaky good, and they are anchored by a strong bullpen that will shut down seven of Los Angeles' nine hitters throughout the game.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Sean Zerillo: Sandy Alcantara is the deserving favorite for the NL Cy Young award with an NL-best 3.4 WAR. The public has taken notice of his dominance and has been piling on the Marlins' moneyline to a significant degree in his recent starts.
While I would assume that his price will eventually become overinflated, I have continued to show actionable value on Alcantara and the Marlins every five days.
Among the 120 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings this season, Alcantara ranks 25th in xFIP (3.38) and 48th in Strikeout-Minus-Walk Rate, or K-BB% (16.4%).
Those marks aren't significantly better than Taijuan Walker's numbers (3.72 xFIP, 12.3% K-BB%). However, the differential in their expected ERA, or xERA, per statcast, is far more substantial (2.54 vs. 3.66), as the pair rank third and 43rd, respectively, in that same group of 120 pitchers.
Moreover, Alcantara's combined rate of groundballs and popups (73.2%) ranks second in that group, behind only Framber Valdez (76.9%)
So, other ERA predictors like xFIP and SIERA (3.48) – in addition to his season-long forecast (FIP range 3.19 to 3.58) – would push Sandy's ERA projection into the mid-threes. Still, given his outrageous propensity to generate weak contact (.237 BABIP in 2022, .265 career), I suspect – based upon batted-ball data – that Alcantara's ERA (1.82) doesn't have as far to fall as other predictors may suggest.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that Alcantara has faced an average of 27.6 batters per game this season – the highest mark in baseball – ahead of Valdez (25.7) and Joe Musgrove (25.7).
In other words, Alcantara turns over an average opponent lineup three times before exiting his starts; if anything, I underestimated his contribution to the full-game moneyline in past outings.
Walker (2.86 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 4.03 SIERA) has a broader range of outcomes. While he's improved his Groundball Rate to a career-best 49.8% – mainly by tossing a splitter 28.6% of the time – his Strikeout Rate has dipped to the second-lowest mark of his career, and his season-long projections (FIP range 4.03 to 4.25) haven't improved to a significant degree either.
For Sunday, I projected the Marlins as -121 favorites (54.8% implied) for the first five innings (F5) and as -108 favorites (52% implied) for the full game. I would bet those lines up to -112 (F5) and +100, respectively, with either wager representing a two percent edge.
I doubt we'll continue to find value in betting on Alcantara for much longer; however, Sunday's start still looks like a spot ripe with actionable value.
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Jules Posner: The Texas Rangers go for the sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon, and they're in a good position to do so.
Twins starter Dylan Bundy has been solid over his last four starts, but his overall road numbers indicate he is due to regress to the mean again. He does have a 2.00 ERA and a 2.60 FIP in his last three road starts, but his 3.78 xFIP shows there's some room for him to slide back.
The Twins' road offense has been exceptional against RHP over the past couple of weeks, but they also have an unsustainable BABIP over that stretch because they have one of the lower LD% and FB% in the league over that span.
Additionally, Rangers' starter Dane Dunning really enjoys pitching at home. He has a 2.83 ERA and a 3.40 xFIP at home this season, which aligns with his career numbers as a Ranger.
Finally, the Twins' bullpen is still in a bit of disarray as they have struggled to find the right formula to back up their starters.
The Rangers enter today as -125 favorites, and that's a fair price for their moneyline. This should be played at -140 or better.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Tanner McGrath: This is a tough game to handicap. The odds seem very fair on both sides, as does the total.
I think the Sox hold value despite how pathetic they've looked in this rivalry series. This time around, they have their only healthy starting pitcher on the mound.
This is a Boston lineup that ranks among the top 10 teams in wRC+ both on the season and over the past 30 days. They also rank among the top five teams in Avg. Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate. The Red Sox don't mash the ball as much as the Yankees do, but they're as close as any other lineup.
I'm also leaning toward the over. Runs have come in bunches during this series, with six runs being scored in just the first inning the other night.
However, both prices are slightly off for me.
To back the Red Sox, I'm looking for the line to move up toward +125. You won't catch me backing the Yankees as a divisional road favorite, but you also won't catch me fading them at such short odds.
To take the over, I'd rather have a juiced over 8.5 than an EV 9, which is where the market stands currently. A 5-4 game seems rather likely in a nationally televised game between these two powerhouses.
If neither price gets there, I'll happily pass and enjoy the best rivalry in sports on Sunday Night Baseball.
