MLB Odds & Predictions: Our Friday Picks From ‘Payoff Pitch’ (June 21)
Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images. Pictured: George Kirby (Mariners)
We have 14 games in action in the MLB on Friday, and there's plenty of betting value on the board.
Our "Payoff Pitch" podcast guys — Tanner McGrath and Mike Ianniello — dial in for two selections in this piece.
So, here's MLB odds and predictions, including our Friday picks from "Payoff Pitch" on June 21.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | Braves ML (-102) | |
| 7:10 p.m. | Mariners F5 (-150) |
Braves ML (-102) at Yankees
7:05 p.m. ET ⋅ Apple TV+
The Yankees obliterate righties but are much closer to league average against lefties.
The Yankees do have hitting depth but face Chris Sale, who's a Cy Young candidate this year for the Braves. His expected run indicators are in the mid-twos with a whopping 30% strikeout rate and walk rate below 5%.
He has the best slider in the game right now in my eyes, with a 42% strike+whiff rate and a 10% hard-contact rate. He continues to mix in a lot of change-ups and sinkers that have neutralized right-handed bats.
The Braves' offense isn't great right now and is quite mercurial, but their batted-ball profile against lefties has looked good recently.
With Carlos Rodon, his stuff is tremendous, but he continues to struggle with contact. He gives up a lot of hard-hit balls, and I don't think he'll keep up stranding 80% of runners. Those two things explain the difference between his 3.2 ERA and a 4.2 xERA.
Finally, the bullpen matchup is drastic. I think the Yankees' bullpen is overrated and overvalued. It's sixth in ERA but 22nd in xFIP, 22nd in strikeout-walk rate and 24th in pitching+. The unit is erratic and just threw eight arms in a blowout loss yesterday afternoon against the Orioles.
The Braves have the rest advantage after an off-day yesterday. I think they have a considerable pitching advantage in the full game, and the only time we can fade the Yankees is when they face a southpaw.
Mariners F5 (-150) at Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Trevor Rogers has been terrible for the Marlins.
He has a 5.9 ERA and his 5.3 xERA shows that he probably won't improve soon. He's simply not a good pitcher. He's in the bottom 20% of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
He throws a mix of four pitches, all evenly, and all have negative value.
On the flip side, I love George Kirby.
I back him all the time. He has a 3.54 ERA and still hasn't reached his ceiling. He has a 3.18 xERA and his strength is his location. He has elite command and doesn't miss the zone often, but when he does, he generates chases.
In his 15 starts this year, he's allowed at least four runs five times but has allowed one run or fewer eight times. So, when we bet on him, we're obviously hoping for one of the latter performances.
He faces one of the worst offenses in the Marlins, who're 29th in the league in weighted on-base average and weighted runs created this season.
There's nobody outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. who's been able to consistently produce in Miami, and few guys have the power to mash, which is Kirby's weakness.
The Mariners' offense has heated up of late and is 11th in WRC over the last two weeks.
I like the Mariners' bullpen more as well, so whatever number is better for first-five or full-game, I would take it.
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