Wiseguys and sportsbooks got taken to the woodshed on Thursday as public favorites went an absurd 9-1 (+5.95 units). Sharps are eyeing big regression tonight. Historically, Friday has been the best day to Fade the Public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week, Average Joes are more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites, home teams and overs), which leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 9:40 p.m., 10:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Washington Nationals (+107) at Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
The Nats have been a public darling for years. But they've lost 12 of their last 16 games and the recreational bettors are jumping ship. Fine by the sharps. Washington is getting only 37% bets, but they've moved from +107 to +106, indicating sharp reverse line movement/line freeze. Goodfellas at multiple books all hammered Washington, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. The Nats are also in a historically profitable spot: they're a road divisional dog with a high total (9) and match the Moneyline Ground Ball Pitcher Bet Labs system (+111.54 units).
San Francisco Giants (+135) at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. ET
Arizona (47-34) just wrapped up an 8-2 road trip and the public sees another easy win tonight. However, sharps are buying low on the road divisional dog G-Men, who are coming off a successful 7-3 home stand and are now back above .500 (42-40). Despite receiving 78% of bets, Arizona has moved from -147 to -146. Normally a team getting overwhelming public support would move from -147 to -150 or -160. The fact that the line hasn't budged indicates sharp liability on San Fran. The G-Men are also getting more money (34%) than bets (22%) and match the profitable Betting Against the Public Bet Labs pro system (+172.02 units since 2005).
Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics Under 8
10:05 p.m. ET
We're seeing a classic Pros vs Joes disagreement on this total. Recreational bettors see Paul Blackburn's 8.83 ERA and say automatic over. Not the sharps. Currently 57% of bets are going over, but a whopping 87% of dollars are on the under. The total opened at 8 and once the public bet it up to 8.5, that's when Goodfellas pounced. Once it fell back down to 8, you saw some buyback. Reading between the lines, sharp under backers are signaling that the hook on the 8.5 is key.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5
10:10 p.m. ET
With Tyler Anderson (4.62 ERA) facing Rich Hill (5.30 ERA), the public is hammering the Over (84% taking Over 7.5). However, despite this massively lopsided public betting, the total hasn't budged off 7.5, and the juice has moved from 7.5 Under +106 to 7.5 Under -111 (it even briefly dipped to 7). Four separate bet signals have also come down on the Under, evidence of wiseguy confidence in a low-scoring game tonight at Chavez Ravine.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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