A real shame to drop last night's Pirates-Padres Under 7.5 bet, as the main reason to take it — Joe Musgrove's first career start in his hometown — came through. However, when one-third of the total runs scored were unearned, it's hard to work around that. Let's go to Saturday.
Zylbert's 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 55-33-2, +18.4 units
Yesterday's Result: Pirates-Padres Under 7.5, Musgrove vs. Lauer (Loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers | O/U: 10
9:05 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (1-2, 3.70 ERA) vs. Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.72 ERA)
At first glance, this might be an intimidating under bet to pursue on this Saturday evening but I believe there is more here than meets the eye to emerge victorious.
Slowly but surely, Carlos Rodon is rounding back into form as he's surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts after coming back from a shoulder injury that pinned him to the disabled list the first two months and change of the campaign.
Not only has he looked solid, he's also getting stronger, pitching into the seventh inning or deeper in each of his last two assignments. That's a good indicator he's returning to full health.
The high strikeout totals that we've grown accustomed to from Rodon haven't been there yet, but that should come in time, perhaps beginning here in Arlington. The Rangers strike out once every 3.77 at-bats versus southpaws. Plus, Rodon is coming off his best performance since returning.
And then we have the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon to lean on, who — like his counterpart tonight — is also coming off a really standout effort his last time out. That came in an under we had last Sunday, when the 45-year-old marvel yielded just two runs across seven sharp frames at Minnesota.
Of course, it's reasonable to doubt the 21-year veteran for an under bet in 2018, but as I highlighted last weekend, he's actually faring better than most might realize.
Colon's .265 batting average against and 1.19 WHIP are his best such marks since 2013, when he was an All-Star. The one-time Montreal Expo figures to also see a decrease in his career-high HR/9 (1.95) and HR/FB percentage (19.2%) as well.
With the over currently juiced, wait up until first pitch to see if we can get this under bet at 10.5.
Play: UNDER 10/10.5
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