MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/2: Can Wainwright, Cardinals Bullpen Gain Home Sweep over Cubs?

On Saturday night, Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Will Smith — the new French Prince — launched his first major league home run in style:

Some guy named Justin Verlander also passed some other dude named Cy Young in career strikeouts:

Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.27 ERA and is on pace for 283 strikeouts. He appears to be the AL Cy Young Award frontrunner at present.

Recapping Yesterday's MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-1 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.

My tracked plays went 6-3, and I finished up 1.43 units for the day.

Saturday was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 16 cents on the Yankees moneyline (-115 to -131), 12 cents on the Cardinals moneyline (-138 to -150), 10 cents on the Texas F5 spread (-120 to -130) and 2 cents each on both the Tampa Bay moneyline (-115 to -117) and the Washington F5 line (+115 to +113)

I only lost 5 cents on the Blue Jays moneyline (+135 to +140).

Two of the three totals that I played also moved in my direction, with the Toronto-Colorado under dropping from 11.0 to 10.5.

On Deck for Sunday, June 2

All odds as of Sunday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Saturday, June 2. 

The model recommends six full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue as the full-game plays.

It also likes the Blue Jays and Marlins, in addition to the Pittsburgh Pirates as F5 plays.

The Blue Jays, Marlins and Pirates are three teams I'm not interested in backing at all today.

I'll take the Tigers at a good price with Matt Boyd pitching, though Atlanta's lineup does scare me a good deal, especially with what Austin Riley is doing.

Per MLB Stats, the rookie joined Rhys Hoskins, Trevor Story and Carlos Delgado as the only players in MLB history with 8 or more home runs through their first 16 career games. Riley also tied the mark for most RBI (22) through his first 16 career games.

Atlanta's offense is 5% below league average against righties, but 10% above average against lefties, perhaps making this a scary play.

However, Boyd has been uber consistent with nine quality starts in 12 outings, never allowing more than four runs with at least six strikeouts or more in 10 of those starts:

I'll also back Sonny Gray at home against Max Scherzer, who has had a rough season but should see positive regression.

I've highlighted Gray previously, and he has continued to pitch extremely well for the Reds with a 3.02 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and the best strikeout minus walk rate (18%) since his rookie season in 2013.

I'll also back the Cardinals and Yankees again, with each throwing a veteran pitcher and looking for a home sweep over a division rival.

Neither Adam Wainwright nor CC Sabathia inspire much confidence for bettors.

Sabathia's velocity is down over 3 mph from last season and he has a .212 batting average on balls in play with a 91% strand rate. Despite a 3.48 ERA, his 6.27 FIP and 5.50 xFIP are more indicative of his 2019 performance.

Similarly, Wainwright's fielding independent metrics are at the worst levels of his own career: 4.79 FIP and 4.46 xFIP.  Fortunately, he plays in front of a sound middle infield.

But I see a big bullpen edge for the Yankees over the Red Sox, and for the Cardinals over the Cubs, which is why these home teams have consistently popped up throughout these series.

I have the Cardinals' bullpen as eight-tenths of a run better than Chicago. And I have the Yankees' bullpen as one half of a run better than Boston.

If you don't want to wager on either of these pitchers pregame, I would recommend waiting to see if they are removed with a small (1-2 run) deficit, before looking to play back the home team live with their bullpen advantage against the visiting bullpen.

The Mets are also a play for me at plus-money going against Merrill Kelly, who is not visually impressive pitcher and will get hit more as the season goes along.

He's already pitched to a 4.83 ERA, 4.81 FIP and 5.03 xFIP with a 45:23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in nearly 60 innings pitched. He's a clear No. 5 starter at best.

Steven Matz has held a 4.14 xFIP since the beginning of 2018, owning solid control of the strike zone (3.09 K/BB) over the course of his career. His problem is the home run ball (1.33 HR/9), allowing 10 in 50 innings pitched this season.

Matz is a lefty with a reverse split, meaning that he's better against righties than against lefties, likely due to his changeup being his most effective pitch.

• Cincinnati Reds (+112) Game Moneyline
• Detroit Tigers (+145) Game Moneyline
• New York Mets (+101) Game Moneyline
• New York Yankees (+110) Game Moneyline
• St. Louis Cardinals (-105) Game Moneyline
• Under 10, San Francisco at Baltimore
• Under 12.5, Toronto at Colorado
• Under 10, LA Angels at Seattle
• Under 10, Boston at NY Yankees

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Sunday, June 2.

Zerillo's Full MLB Model, 6/2

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.