Welcome back to the Wednesday MLB slate breakdown. We have only one game starting before 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with most matchups scheduled for the evening.
Be sure to check out our MLB odds page for up-to-the-minute odds changes across multiple sportsbooks, as well as our MLB Projections page, which helps you find the best value across the board.
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Orioles vs. Yankees
7:05 p.m. ET · Dean Kremer vs. Randy Vasquez
Dean Kremer has been significantly worse than his already bad numbers look on paper. His ERA sits at 5.02, but his xERA is up at 6.03. He’s in the bottom 10 percentile among MLB starting pitchers in xwOBA, xSLG and xBA.
Kremer is a very straightforward pitcher with his three main pitches being a fastball, sinker and cutter. All three of those pitches are allowing an xwOBA over .350 and have failed to keep the ball off the sweet spot, as he’s allowing an insanely high 11% barrel rate.
He faced the Yankees earlier this season and got roughed up for four runs in only five innings of work. In fact, he's given up at least two runs in his last seven starts.
The Yankees offense has struggled ever since Aaron Judge got injured, but Kremer could be the perfect pitcher to help them find their groove.
New York starter Randy Vasquez has a very limited sample size of just two starts in the big leagues, but he did give up only two runs total in those starts. He projects to be around a 4.6 ERA type of pitcher, per FanGraphs, which gives the Yankees the advantage in the starting pitching matchup.
Vasquez has five different pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time, so he'll be able to give the Orioles a ton of different looks. I'd imagine the Yankees won't let him see the opposition the third time through the order.
I have the Yankees projected at -121 for the full game and -128 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +105 for the full game (BetMGM) and -103 for the first five innings (BetRivers).
Pick: Yankees +105 · Yankees F5 -103 |
Braves vs. Guardians
7:10 p.m. ET · Michael Soroka vs. Cal Quantrill
There was once a time when Michael Soroka was going to be the Braves' No. 1 starter for the foreseeable future. Then one injury after another has kept Soroka away from pitching for Atlanta, and while he's made his return, it hasn't gone as planned.
Soroka has started three games and has an ERA well above 6.00 with his expected metrics incredibly high as well.
Soroka was always someone who would outperform his expected ERA. Even in his one full season that wasn't hampered by injury, he had a 2.68 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and 3.85 xFIP.
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Image via FanGraphs
Cleveland’s offense has been bad overall for the season, but it's been much better lately. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians own a .329 wOBA and 111 wRC+ — eighth in MLB — after sitting near the bottom of baseball offensively in those metrics in April and May.
Cal Quantrill was one of the most frustrating pitchers to handicap because he consistently outperformed his expected metrics year after year. But this year, he's finally getting shelled like he was supposed to. He owns a 6.18 ERA and 5.99 xERA, which is one of the highest marks among qualified starting pitchers.
He basically only throws a sinker and a cutter, so he's very reliant on weak contact. So far this season, opposing hitters have over a .300 xBA and .350 xwOBA against both pitches.
Quantrill also has one of the lowest K/9 rates among qualified starting pitchers while also sitting near the bottom in Stuff+ as well. So, facing the best lineup in baseball that has hit 66 home runs and boasts a .396 wOBA over the past 30 days is a recipe for disaster.
I have 10.7 runs projected for the full game and 6.6 for the first five innings, so I like the value on over 10 runs at -104 for the full game and over 5.5 runs for the first five innings at -112.
Pick: Over 10 (-104) · F5 Over 5.5 (-114) |
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
8:10 p.m. ET · Jose Berrios vs. Lance Lynn
On paper, you would think it's been an improved year for Berrios, who has a 3.74 ERA. However, when you dig into his expected and Statcast metrics, it tells a completely different story.
Berrios is sitting with a 4.73 xERA, almost a full run higher than his actual ERA. His Statcast metrics for average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed are good, but he's struggling to keep the ball off the barrel, which means he's allowing a high xSLG and xwOBA.
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Image via Baseball Savant
On the other side, Lance Lynn has been a disaster for the White Sox this season. His ERA has now ballooned up over 6.00, and his xERA is a very high 4.76 as well.
Lynn has really struggled in the home run department, as his HR/9 of 2.08 is the highest of his career.
Lynn basically only throws a fastball, cutter, sinker combination, and 19 of the 22 home runs he's given up have come off those pitches. None of those pitches has been effective, as they're all allowing an xwOBA over .350. The Stuff+ isn't encouraging either, as his cutter is the only one with a rating above 100.
The Blue Jays have a .375 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs, sinkers and cutters, and they're seventh in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
I have 10.6 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on over 9 runs at -110.
Pick: Over 9 (-110) |
Cubs vs. Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET · Justin Steele vs. Adrian Houser
Justin Steele is a legitimate Cy Young candidate who the books continue to undervalue.
He's not the flashiest pitcher and won't lead the league in Stuff+, but he gets outs. His xERA is sitting at 3.01, and he has the third-best WAR in the National League right now.
Steele can utilize a lot of different arm angles on his fastball, which makes him so difficult for opposing hitters. He's pretty reliant on that fastball, considering he throws it 62.9% of the time, but opposing hitters only have a .299 xwOBA against it and it's also producing a 21% whiff rate.
Most importantly, though, his fastball-slider combination has been incredibly effective at generating weak contact and keeping the ball off the opponent's barrel.
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Image via Baseball Savant
The Brewers have not only been bad against left-handed pitching this season (second to last in wOBA), but they have a -43.2 run value against fastballs and sliders, so this is the perfect matchup for Steele to continue his Cy Young campaign.
Adrian Houser has been an average MLB starting pitcher with his xERA sitting at 4.16. He's a groundball pitcher with his main two pitches being a sinker and fastball.
However, his groundball rate sits at 50%, which is below his career average. He's also allowing one of the highest expected batting averages in baseball at .275, along with a high hard-hit rate.
I have Steele and the Cubs projected at -216 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -157.
Pick: Cubs F5 -157 |
