Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, April 12.
MLB Picks Friday | Odds Today, Predictions, Preview (April 12)
Twins vs. Tigers
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 7 100o / -120u | +105 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 100o / -120u | -125 |
Pablo Lopez vs. Tarik Skubal
This is probably the best pitching matchup Friday, and I think the market is overvaluing Tarik Skubal.
Skubal is without a doubt one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but his last start against the A's was a little concerning with just how much his velocity dropped the deeper he got into the game.
Hey Tarik Skubal, you’re okay, right?
That velocity drop is kinda scary. pic.twitter.com/oMX22EWm6F
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) April 5, 2024
Skubal has dealt with injuries throughout his career and the data suggest he struggles the deeper he goes into games. When he's facing the lineup the first time through the order, he has has a 2.77 xFIP; facing the order the second time through, his xFIP rises up to 3.94; and when he sees the order the third time through, his xFIP rises to 4.44. The biggest problem with the drop in velocity the further he goes into the game is that he's not able to generate swings and misses at a high rate, as his strikeout rate drops over 25% from the first time through the order to the third.
Pablo López was quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and has put together a nice start to this season as well. in 2023, López's Stuff+ numbers were around the league average, but he may have the best command of his pitch arsenal of anyone in baseball. He finished last year top five in Pitching+ and so far this season has only walked one batter in 12 2/3 innings.
López is also elite against right-handed hitters. In 2023, he only allowed a .260 wOBA and .205 batting average to righties and has been even more dominant against them in 2024. He's pretty average against left-handed bats, but the good news is the Tigers can at best platoon four lefties into their lineup. Additionally, last season, the Tigers were one of the worst lineups in baseball against right-handed pitchers.
With both bullpens being fresh after getting a day off yesterday, the Twins will have a pretty significant advantage over the Tigers, as they not only project to be better in 2024 but were significantly better in 2023 in just about every metric.
I have the Twins projected as a -123 road favorite, so I like the value on them at +105.
Pick: Twins ML (+105 via DraftKings)
Rangers vs. Astros
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Dane Dunning vs. J.P. France
With these two starting pitchers on the mound with two of the best offenses in baseball squaring off, I think we'll see some runs early on.
Dane Dunning is a below-average major league starting pitcher. He's coming off a season in which he's pitched both as a starter and in the bullpen and still posted a 4.48 xERA. The problem with Dunning is he doesn't have great stuff and isn't able to generate a high number of swing and misses. In 2023, he was in the 22nd percentile for whiff rate, which probably has to do with the fact that his sinker only averaged 91 mph. His velocity is down across the board in 2024, as he's now only averaging 89.8 mph on his sinker. Naturally, his Stuff+ rating has plummeted to 89.
The Astros are an incredibly difficult lineup to face because not only do they crush right-handed pitching, they don't have any weaknesses against any pitch type. In 2023, Houston had positive run values against every single pitch.
Dunning has been pretty bad to start 2024, putting up an xERA over six in 13 innings. Not to mention, he faced Houston once as a starter in 2023 and gave up nine runs.
J.P. France honestly isn't that much better than Dunning. France has been a little unlucky through two starts, but he's coming off his first season in the big leagues in which he posted a 4.86 expected ERA. His Stuff+ numbers were slightly above average, but his biggest problem is the high strikeout rate that he had in the minors has not translated to the big leagues. From the beginning of last year, he's only a little over 17% for his strikeout rate, which is a problem considering he didn't have that high of a ground ball rate and allowed a pretty high hard hit rate.
The Rangers' offense is very similar to the Astros' in the sense that it doesn't matter what you throw them, if it's average stuff, they are going to crush it.
I have 5.9 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on the F5 Over 5 runs at -120.
Pick: F5 Over 5 runs (-120 via Bet365)
Cubs vs. Mariners
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Jordan Wicks vs. Bryce Miller
This line is way too short in my opinion given the gap in the starting pitching matchup.
Jordan Wicks is a soft-tossing lefty that is seemingly relying on being elite with his location and generating a lot of swing and misses. The problem is when you don't have above-average pitches, it's really hard to generate a high percentage of whiffs over an extended period of time. Wicks made seven starts toward the end of last season and only had a Stuff+ rating of 77. It's improved a little in 2024 with it being up to 90, but for his career, he has a a little above a a four expected ERA.
Bryce Miller, on the other hand, has fantastic stuff. In 2023, he posted a Stuff+ rating of 117, which was the 11th-highest in MLB. Miller's problem was leaving the ball in the zone way too much; when he did get hit, he got hit really hard. He has great command of his arsenal with only a 1.78 BB/9, but learning to utilize his stuff to generate a high number of swing and misses is the next step that he's already learning this season. Through two starts, Miller has increased his whiff rate from 23.5% to 36.4%, which in turn has increased his K% drastically and lowered his xERA from 4.86 in 2023 to 3.59 in 2024.
The Mariners have gotten off to the worst start imaginable at the plate, as they have the worst wOBA in MLB despite all the talent in this lineup that was top 10 in all of the key hitting metrics last season. They also are due to positively regress, though, considering their expected wOBA is .305 compared to their actual wOBA of .274.
The Mariners bullpen also projects to be one of the best in baseball after finishing with the fourth-best xFIP in baseball last year.
I have the Mariners projected at -157, so I love the value on them at -117 for the full game and -115 for the first five innings.
Pick: Mariners ML (-117 via BetRivers) | Mariners F5 ML (-115 via DraftKings)
