The MLB slate on Monday, April 7, features 11 games, and our baseball experts are all over it with four MLB picks and props for Rangers vs Cubs, Orioles vs Diamondbacks, Astros vs Mariners and Padres vs Athletics.
MLB best bets for Monday include a first five innings (F5) over/under, a home run prop bet for Gunnar Henderson, a moneyline pick, and total pick for Padres-A's.
MLB Picks, Props, Predictions for Monday, April 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Rangers vs Cubs Best Bet: First Five Innings
This is clearly not baseball weather in Chicago. We're looking at temperatures near freezing, winds blowing in, and potential snow showers. Weather GOAT Kevin Roth described it as "insanely good pitching weather, so long as the pitcher can still feel his fingers."
The books were quick to react to the full game total, pushing it all the way down to six. There's still some value on the First Five Innings (F5) line, though. Grabbing this line also helps us avoid a Cubs bullpen that has been scuffling.
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been the best pitcher in the league through two starts. He's coming off a shutout against Cincinnati, which followed a dominant outing against Boston on Opening Day. Eovaldi won't maintain this pace, but he's effective when healthy.
Justin Steele is the bigger question mark.
He's off to a sluggish start, which seems to be a trend with pitchers who threw in the Tokyo Series. Steele has allowed 3+ earned runs in all three of his outings so far.
The key is the home runs. He's allowed five of them already after giving up just 12 in 24 starts last season.
Steele has never had a full season above 0.80 HR/9, so the dinger problem is likely small sample size noise. This is a good spot for positive regression.
Roth's WeatherEdge tool shows a 40.8% decrease in home runs based on 45 games matching these conditions.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-140)
| | | |
Grant Neiffer's Orioles vs Diamondbacks Best Home Run Bet
The matchup for Henderson is slightly below average tonight, but the odds are heavily inflated for some reason.
Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen is an above-average pitcher at suppressing power, allowing .93 HR/9 to lefties in his career with around average fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
Henderson is coming off a massive year with 37 HRs. He's off to a rough start in his first three games, but even if you take that into account, it doesn't nearly justify this number.
I have the true odds under +500, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)
| | | |
Dead President's Astros-Mariners Moneyline Pick
The Astros and Mariners will meet in Rain City on Monday night.
Houston enters the contest with a 4-5 record on the young season, coming off a 9-7 comeback win over the Twins on Sunday. Veteran Jose Altuve is leading the team, batting .359 with two home runs.
Tonight, 27-year-old Hayden Wesneski will take the mound. Wesneski is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA.
Seattle enters Monday with a 3-7 record and will look to snap a three-game losing streak. The Mariners have struggled offensively, scoring four runs or fewer in four of their last five games. Julio Rodriguez leads the team with three home runs on the season.
Logan Gilbert will take the rubber tonight. Gilbert is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA.
We’ll sip on the juice and ride with the home team tonight. Seattle is in a strong spot after losing three consecutive games at home. Gilbert has favorable numbers against the Astros' lineup, holding them to a .248 batting average over 153 at-bats.
Seattle is batting .375 against Wesneski in a small sample size of 16 at-bats.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-158)
| | | |
Sean Zerillo's Padres vs Athletics Over/Under Pick
By Sean Zerillo
