Welcome to another episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Action Network experts Tanner McGrath and Sean Zerillo joined the show to discuss their favorite MLB bets for today's games, including a total prediction for Blue Jays vs. Yankees and a moneyline pick for Orioles vs. Guardians.
Listen to the full episode below, or continue reading for their MLB betting predictions for Friday, August 2.
Payoff Pitch Best Bets | Friday, August 2
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | Over 9 (-115) |
  | 7:10 p.m. | Guardians ML (-106), Over 9 (-112) |
Over 9 (-115)
Blue Jays vs. Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
I like over 9 to -110 here.
I don't trust neither starting pitcher nor bullpen in this one. Kevin Gausman goes for the Jays and his struggles boil down to the splitter which isn't playing as well because his fastball has lost velocity. The advanced metrics on both of those pitches has dropped below average for the first time in his career. Gausman can't put batters away without those two pitches working off each other and with 0-2 counts, opponents are slashing .238/.277/.362 with four homers this season. That's against the average of .168/.201/.257 across the league.
Marcus Stroman goes for the Yankees whose velocity continues to drop throughout this season. All of his numbers are approaching dangerously low levels with a ground-ball rate down to 45% over his last six starts for a guy whose career average is 56%. He had a few months of overperforming but in these last six starts, he has allowed 21 runs over 34 innings.
Onto the bullpens, Toronto has the worst in the league and it will get worse with Yimi Garcia now traded. They face a Yankees bullpen that was never that good and was overvalued early in the season. We have two offenses that have figured things out thanks to Vladdy Jr. finally breaking the curse. We have had five straight games between these two go over with an average of 12.5 runs per game during that stretch.
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Guardians ML (-106), Over 9 (-112)
Orioles vs. Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
I made this matchup -112 in favor of the Guardians with the starting pitchers nearly even, giving a slight advantage to Dean Kremer over Carlos Carrasco.
The line has moved since it was plus money last night, but I just can't get the Orioles to a road favorite here. The Guardians have the better bullpen and the better defense, and they are first in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate this season. Their bullpen is elite and while Baltimore went out and got some help at the deadline, they changed over about 25% of a 25-man roster that was already in first place so the chemistry will take time to gel.
I think the Guardians remain an underrated club in the way they play. Obviously, Carrasco is a heart attack on the mound and not a guy I love backing with a 4.6 xERA, but Kremer worse at 5.25. I don't think there is a massive difference between these two starters and I am probably more interested in this number live but I want to take it pregame too.
I also made this over closer to 9.7, so the over 9 to -112 would be the cutoff for me. I do expect the scoring to be front-loaded against the starters and we have good wind to help the fly-balls.
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