The National League Division Series concludes on Friday night when the San Diego Padres take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5. Our staff has come through with two MLB picks and Friday predictions for Padres vs Dodgers — find those Game 5 best bets below.
MLB Picks, Friday Predictions & Game 5 Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific NLDS best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
| 8:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Padres vs Dodgers Moneyline Prediction
By D.J. James
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is definitely one of the more impressive starting pitchers in MLB, but his opponent, Yu Darvish carved up the Los Angeles Dodgers the last time out.
Meanwhile, Yamamoto struggled, yielding five earned runs over three innings. He only had one strikeout, so the Padres were seeing him well.
Yamamoto had a 3.00 ERA against a 3.44 xERA this season, with an Average Exit Velocity of 88.4 mph and Hard-Hit Rate in the 27th percentile. He can strike hitters out at a 28.5% rate and only walked 6%.
Darvish is comparable with a 3.31 ERA and 3.64 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity was a bit over 89 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 38th percentile.
He struck out 23.6% of batters with a 6.6% walk rate this year. That said, the Dodgers only had three hits over seven innings the other day. His versatile arsenal can keep the hitters guessing.
The Dodgers held a September 129 wRC+ with an 11.8% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate.
The Padres held a 115 wRC+, 7.3% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate.
San Diego has a much better relief staff, as well. Since the Padres have seen the Los Angeles bullpen so often this series, they could have an edge. Darvish has the ability to pitch deep into this game and bridge to the team's elite relief arms.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+125 | Play to +105)
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Tony Sartori's Yu Darvish Prop Pick
By Tony Sartori
After a down year in 2023, Yu Darvish has returned to his normal self this season. Over 16 starts, the right-hander went 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong as Darvish ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and barrel rate.
Specifically, we are going to back him in the prop market as Darvish also ranked in the top half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in 13 of his 17 career appearances against the Dodgers.
Looking at it from the other side, this current Dodgers lineup possesses a 25.2% strikeout rate and 23.7% whiff rate through 294 combined career plate appearances against Darvish.
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 | Play to -150)
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