The MLB Playoffs resume with a pair of League Championship Series matchups on Monday, and our baseball betting experts have you covered with three MLB best bets split between Mets vs Dodgers Game 2 and Guardians vs Yankees Game 1.
Read below for our MLB prop picks and predictions for Monday, October 14.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Monday Predictions — 10/14
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:38 p.m. | |
| 7:38 p.m. | |
  | 4:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Dodgers Best Bet: Expect a Solid Outing From Sean Manaea
By Tony Sartori
The New York Mets hand the ball to left-hander Sean Manaea in Game 2, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. He put together a strong regular season, posting a 12-6 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 32 starts.
His underlying metrics were equally strong, considering that Manaea ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success has continued into the postseason, as he is 1-0 through two playoff starts with a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Manaea just recorded six strikeouts in his previous outing, and I believe he can do so again in Game 2 of the NLCS.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers possess a powerhouse lineup, Manaea is capable of keeping them at bay. The southpaw is 1-0 against the Dodgers in his last two outings against them, with a 1.50 ERA.
Pick: Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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Sean Zerillo's Guardians vs Yankees Best Bet: Tough Matchup for Carlos Rodon
By Sean Zerillo
The southpaw puts the Guardians' offense into its better split (114 wRC+ vs. lefties on the season, 108 in the second half; that ranks 8th and 11th, respectively, vs. 20th (95) and 27th (88) against righties) after facing the best left-handed pitcher on the planet — Tarik Skubal — in two of their last four games.
Rodon is more four-seam/slider-focused (75.4% combined) than Skubal (who uses those pitches and his sinker to set up his elite changeup).
Cleveland's lineup hits four-seamers (12th in run value per 100 pitches) far better than sinkers (26th) or any other typical pitch type. Its offense also refused to strike out against lefties in the second half (18.6%, 2nd in MLB vs. 21.7%, 12th against righties). I would have bet Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts at -125, but it's too juiced at -150.
Instead, consider Rodon Under 14.5 Outs (+120); Rodon is never particularly efficient with his pitch count, even when he does strike opponents out, but Cleveland's lineup is also the type to grind and make him work harder to get them by fouling pitches off. And he seemingly has blowup potential at any point in his starts — no matter how good he has looked to that point in the outing.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 14.5 Outs (+120)
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Kenny Ducey's Guardians vs Yankees Best Bet: Regression Looming for Alex Cobb
By Kenny Ducey
Alex Cobb found plenty of success pitching to contact with the Angels and Giants, as he revitalized his career at age-33, but he’s gone backwards as quickly as he took a massive step forward with a .278 Expected Batting Average last year and a mark of .280 in just three outings amidst an injury-riddled 2024 campaign.
Now, he’ll take the ball at Yankee Stadium on Monday night against a team which hit .280 versus ground-ball pitchers this season, ranking inside the top five all year long and finishing third in that split.
Cobb hasn’t exactly enjoyed pitching to these Yankees over the course of his career, recording a brutal .275 xBA and .526 Expected Slugging with several tough head-to-head matchups against the likes of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Alex Verdugo.
This team may be hitting just .220 during the postseason, but it’s been the victim of some batted ball luck considering it ranks second among all teams playing October baseball with a .280 xBA and first with a 49.5% hard-hit rate through four games. Things seemed to correct a bit with an eight-hit night against the Royals in Game 4 of the ALDS, and now I think we’ll see some further positive regression to the mean against Cobb.
The veteran right-hander allowed four hits over 3 2/3 innings in his most recent outing against the Yankees last April and owns a middling 3.54 lifetime ERA and brutal .286 xBA pitching in the Bronx. A shortened outing could do us in here, but I think he should receive a long enough leash here to get home on a generous line which may not require more than three innings to hit.
Pick: Alex Cobb Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-131)
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