The MLB playoffs roll into Tuesday, Oct. 8, with NLDS games set for today. Our baseball experts are all over Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 and have two MLB picks and best bets for the wildly entertaining NL West clash.
Find their MLB predictions for Walker Buehler and Jackson Merill below.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Predictions for the NLDS – 10/8
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Tuesday NLDS games.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:08 p.m. | |
| 9:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Dodgers vs Padres Best Bet: Walker Buehler in Trouble
By Tony Sartori
The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Walker Buehler in Game 3, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.
Buehler has never returned to form following Tommy John surgery in 2023, and I am not quite sure we will ever see that pitcher again.
In 16 starts this season, the right-hander went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally poor as Buehler ranked in the bottom fifth of the league in both xERA and xBA.
Specifically, we are going to fade Buehler in the props/pitching" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strikeouts prop market. He ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. At the time of writing, you can find his strikeout prop at 2.5.
While that is a low total, Buehler's final regular season start came against the San Diego Padres, a game in which he collected just once punchout in five innings.
In fact, Buehler has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in each of his two starts against the Padres since returning from injury.
Pick: Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+136 to +130)
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D.J. James's Dodgers vs Padres Best Bet: Jackson Merrill Player Prop
By D.J. James
Walker Buehler would not be starting a playoff game for the Dodgers if not for a couple of key starting rotation injuries.
He had a 5.38 ERA and 4.68 xERA this year. His Average Exit Velocity was a touch above 88 mph, with an above-average Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate, but he held a walk rate above 8% with a strikeout rate under 19%.
Padres rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill has been a key contributor for this lineup. The 21-year-old boasts a combination of power and contact at the dish.
His walk rate is under 5%, but his strikeout rate is only 17% with a well above average whiff rate. His Barrel Rate is over 11% with an Average Exit Velocity over 90 mph and an above average Hard-Hit Rate. On paper, he essentially negates the only peripheral metrics that went well for Buehler over the regular season.
Merrill had a .376 xwOBA off of righties with a 12.7% strikeout rate in September. His xSLG was .586, and he had an .891 OPS off of righties this year, including 52 extra-base hits.
The Dodgers have a 4.29 xFIP with plenty of right-handers in relief. They do not rack up strikeouts, either, so Merrill should make some contact in this game.
Look for him to get multiple opportunities with runners on, and most importantly, look for him to notch over 1.5 total bases. Play it from +105 to -125.
Pick: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 to -125)
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