The 2024 MLB playoffs are underway on this fine Tuesday and our baseball betting experts have five MLB best bets to get the festivities started.
After looking over today's MLB odds, our experts have identified their MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Brewers, Braves vs Padres and more.
MLB Best Bets & Wild Card Prop Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's Wild Card Game 1s. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:32 p.m. | |
  | 8:38 p.m. | |
  | 2:32 p.m. | |
  | 4:08 p.m. | |
| 4:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BJ Cunningham's Tigers vs Astros Best Bet: Bet Valdez's Strikeouts
Framber Valdez wasn’t really getting the swings and misses he’s used to getting over the first half of the season. However, since the All-Star Break, he’s increased his strikeout rate from 20% to 29%. A lot of that has to do with his stuff getting significantly better. His Stuff+ rating went from 110 in the first half of the season to 119 in the second half. In terms of strikeouts, his curveball is the pitch that gets most hitters out. It has accounted for 92 of his 169 strikeouts because opposing hitters have a 36.4% swing percentage when he throws it outside the zone.
If we do some math: Valdez's strikeout rate over the second half of the season is 29%, and this season he faced an average of 25.1 batters per start. So, if we factor those together, we get a projection of 7.28. That’s not even taking into account the fact that the Tigers have been striking out at one of the highest rates in baseball over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star Break, the Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate, and against left-handed pitching this season, they have seventh-highest strikeout rate.
Even though it’s the playoffs and Valdez's leash is likely going to be a little shorter, this line is a tad low considering how often the Tigers strikeout.
Pick: Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Tony Sartori's Royals vs Orioles Best Bet: Burnes Can Rack up Strikeouts
By Tony Sartori
The Baltimore Orioles will hand the ball to right-hander Corbin Burnes in Game 1, and he should be a good candidate to back. Baltimore's ace posted a 15-9 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP across 32 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as he ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to back Burnes in the prop market as he ranks in the 89th percentile in chase rate and the 75th percentile in whiff rate.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he's surpassed in each of his past three starts. That success is likely to continue against the Kansas City Royals.
Through 127 combined career plate appearances against Burnes, the current Royals' lineup possesses a 23.6% strikeout rate and a 28.6% whiff rate.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
D.J. James's Royals vs Orioles Best Bet: Trust These Pitchers
By D.J. James
Cole Ragans was an excellent acquisition for the Kansas City Royals and will now be making a meaningful start in October. The southpaw owns a 3.14 ERA and a 3.27 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.3 mph and although he has a tendency to issue some walks (8.8%), he strikes out over 29.3% of his opponents.
Today's opponent will be Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles. Burnes owns a 2.92 ERA and a 3.27 xERA. He has an Average Exit Velocity of 87.5 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 95th percentile. His walk rate is only 6.1% and his strikeout rate is over 23%.
When it comes to hitting, Kansas City hasn't fared well against righties. The Royals have a 75 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate against lefties over the past month.
The Orioles hold a 91 wRC+, an 8% walk rate and a 24.5% strikeout rate over the past month.
Kansas City’s bullpen has been dominant since September 1 with a 3.25 xFIP, a 7.7% walk rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate.
Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 3.76 xFIP, a 9.3% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate.
Either way, both teams have options in relief. Bet the under in Baltimore, which isn't a hitter’s park and ranks 15th, according to Statcast’s park factors.
Bet the under down to 6.5.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-116)
Kenny Ducey's Mets vs Brewers Best Bet: The F5 Spread Pick
By Kenny Ducey
The first game of the evening will be a story of two pitchers – and their offenses – trending in opposite directions when the red-hot Luis Severino takes on the troubled Freddy Peralta.
Severino’s Expected Batting Average came down for a second straight month in September, all the way to .225 as he flirted with a season low, working in chorus with a strikeout rate that’s sat at a whopping 27% since the start of August. His ground-balling ways should aid him against a Brewers team hitting just .256 against these types – ranked 11th in the league – and one which has once again shown its true colors down the stretch with the sixth-worst wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Over the last three years, Milwaukee has fooled us with hot months time and time again, only to revert back to a middling offense. It’s struck out in an insane 30.4% of plate appearances over the last 14 days to a measly .115 Isolated Power and .223 average, leading me to believe this is another excellent spot to play Severino despite some rocky results in the last 10 starts.
Peralta’s recent results haven’t been much better, with two or more walks in 13 straight starts and an unsavory ERA brought on by his disinterest in working deep into games. He’s made a late push in the strikeout department, but will meet a Mets team that has been making improvements in that category and has walked in nearly 9% of its plate appearances over the last two weeks.
Peralta’s xBA checked in at a season-worst .250 last month next to a dreadful .447 Expected Slugging, and if his strikeout numbers take a slight dive against the Mets, it’ll mean trouble considering this team is sitting 11 spots higher – up to 8th this season – in OPS to fly-ball pitchers.
New York’s offense has been significantly stronger in the last two weeks, and it has a clear edge in the pitching matchup to kick things off. With the Brewers’ bullpen cooking and the Mets’ in flux, I’ll aim for the first five innings.
Pick: Mets F5 +0.5 (-125)
Kenny Ducey's Braves vs Padres Best Bet: Back Atlanta in First Five Innings
By Kenny Ducey
At the time of writing, the Braves haven’t figured out who will start Game 1 of their wild-card series against the Padres, but two of their three options are heavy ground-ball types, and all three have struggled to limit walks down in Triple-A over the last month.
That should make for a good matchup, considering the Padres’ contact-heavy approach has led them to walk at a minuscule rate and their results have ben far worse against launch angle avoiders with a .712 OPS versus ground-ballers, ranking 11th in the game compared to a second-ranked .777 OPS the other way around.
This is a team that’s begun to lost its way just a bit over the last two weeks, ranking 14th in wRC+ with a poor .232 average. San Diego’s leaned on a .191 Isolated Power to remain an average offense, but its strikeout rate has trended in the wrong direction and its walk rate in that span now sits under 7%.
I think that’ll make the task at hand a bit too much for Michael King to handle, considering he’s started to show some signs of fatigue after working his first career season as a starting pitcher.
King’s numbers may appear to be just fine, but his Expected Batting Average jumped to .249 in September with a concerning dip in strikeout rate to 25.5%.
The Braves caught fire down the stretch as they pushed for a postseason berth, hitting .283 in the final two weeks with a marginal improvement in strikeouts and plenty of damage on contact with a .219 ISO.
They’re clearly the trendier of the two offenses, and with King’s struggles beneath the surface – and the surprisingly solid matchup for two of Atlanta’s three options to start, this could turn in the home team’s favor – at least until one of the best bullpens in baseball takes over.
I’d avoid Atlanta if AJ Smith-Shawver gets the nod, but if it’s Ian Anderson or Bryce Elder, I’ll back the Braves through five.
Editor's Note: Smith-Shawver is starting Game 1 for the Braves.
Pick: Braves F5 +0.5 (+100)
