For once, we have a Wild Card Series that isn’t going to end in a sweep, and our baseball betting experts are all over it with MLB best bets, picks, props and predictions for Mets vs Brewers Game 3 at American Family Field on Thursday, Oct. 3.
MLB best bets for this decisive Mets vs Brewers Wild Card game include a player prop on Brewers starting pitcher Tobias Myers and a moneyline pick on the underdogs.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props & Predictions Today – 10/3
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:08 p.m. | |
| 7:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Mets vs Brewers Best Bet: Moneyline Pick for Game 3
By D.J. James
José Quintana goes for the Mets. He has been great at keeping the ball on the ground with a ground-ball rate in the 79th percentile. His Average Exit Velocity is 88 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 53rd percentile.
He does not strike out many hitters and sometimes has control issues, which has led to his 4.49 xERA against his 3.75 ERA. That said, he held a 0.72 ERA over four starts — one of which was against the Brewers — in September.
Tobias Myers will face the Mets. He has a 3.00 ERA and 4.11 xERA.
Unlike Quintana, his ground-ball rate is well below average. He also has an Average Exit Velocity of almost 90 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 52nd percentile. He can limit walks and has a slightly higher strikeout rate than Quintana.
At the plate, the Mets have seven bats who have eclipsed a .330 xwOBA in September off righties. The Brewers only have three who did the same off of lefties, and Eric Haase is one of them. He may not be in the game as a backup catcher.
In relief, the Brewers have a 3.48 xFIP while the Mets had a 3.35 xFIP. The Mets’ relief staff also produces more strikeouts, but more walks.
Needless to say, the lineup for the Mets has an edge here, even on the road. Bet New York from +119 to +100.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+119 | Play to +100)
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Tony Sartori's Mets vs Brewers Best Bet: Short Leash for Tobias Myers?
By Tony Sartori
The Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Tobias Myers in Thursday's win-or-go-home Game 3, and there are a few reasons why I want to fade him in the prop market.
First, Myers finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
Second, he is a rookie hurler making his first postseason start. His leash will be as short as any, especially when you consider that he has thrown just four innings in each of his last three starts.
If he gets in just a little bit of trouble early, I don't think Brewers manager Pat Murphy is going to leave him in for long.
That is certainly a plausible situation, given that Myers ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Pick: Tobias Myers Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+132 | Play to +125)
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