The National League Championship Series in the MLB Playoffs have arrived, and our experts are all over it with MLB picks, props and predictions for NLCS Game 1 between the Mets and Dodgers on Sunday, Oct. 13.
Find those MLB best bets — an over/under prediction and two player props for Dodgers Jack Flaherty and Max Muncy — below.
MLB Picks, Props, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday — 10/13
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Justin Perri's Mets vs Dodgers Over/Under Pick
By Justin Perri
This is just a bit too cheap for an under.
My personal philosophy is that the first game in a series is the second-most pivotal game behind Game 7 (or Game 5 in a five-game series). The combination of Game 1 occurring in the initial, tied state and its series-long impact are often overlooked when considering a playoff matchup at large.
All four Division Series winners won Game 1 this year and the average over the last 10 seasons before this was 75% of Game 1 winners advancing to the Championship Series.
The value of Game 1 decreases as the length of the series extends to seven games from five. Three of the last six NLCS have had a Game 1 loser win the series, but only one of those last six Game 1 contests had more than eight runs — and it was the least recent, in 2018.
I'm not the heaviest trend-based bettor, but even including the American League, going back five years, we've seen the 10 combined Championship Series average five runs in their respective Game 1s.
For my fellow statheads, the data set has a median of 5.5 and a standard deviation of approximately 2.5. That's pretty nice to see since my predicted number on this game is 7.5.
This is really a model play, doesn't have much to do with the trend, but it's fun to see it get backed up. These rosters are good, but the pitching is better.
Kodai Senga's forkball and cutter combo are elite, and I expect the Mets to get more than just two innings from him tonight. New York also got the benefit of not having to play a Game 5, which helps get its bullpen back on track and limit runs.
Jack Flaherty is on the other side — he pounds the zone with plus stuff and has a 97th percentile called-strike rate. He's an artist when in good form. He had a difficult time against a very strong San Diego roster, but this is a great price to buy back in on him.
The Dodgers also have the benefit of no travel between their games so they get a traditional off-day for their bullpen, which should mean their full arsenal will be ready to go.
Grab under 8.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -110)
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Dodgers Best Bet: Fade Max Muncy
By Tony Sartori
We hit on Muncy to go under 0.5 hits in my SGP from Game 5 of the NLDS, and I am going right back to the well in Game 1 of the NLCS.
New York's plan is to start the game with Kodai Senga and then turn the ball over to the bullpen for the rest of the game.
It's almost guaranteed that Senga will face Muncy at least once prior to getting pulled, and if Muncy starts the game 0-for-1, then we have increased value in the pre-game number of him going hitless. The reason why I believe that Muncy will start 0-for-1 is that his greatest weakness is also Senga's greatest strength: the strikeout.
Muncy ranks in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates, while Senga finished last season in the top quarter of the league in each of those two categories. Subsequently, Muncy is hitless through three career plate appearances against Senga (with a strikeout).
He has also failed to record a hit in six of his last nine games.
Pick: Max Muncy Under 0.5 Hits (-105)
Sean Zerillo's Jack Flaherty Prop Pick
By Sean Zerillo
As I mentioned during the NLDS, Jack Flaherty (3.51 xERA, 24% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) was amongst the best pitchers in MLB through August (2.78 xFIP and 26.3% K-BB%) before suffering his worst month of the season in September (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%).
His fastball and slider velocity (93.5 mph and 84.8 mph, respectively, through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season, which represents his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017.
However, Flaherty's velocity returned in NLDS Game 2 against San Diego, when he averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball and 84.7 mph on his slider. Perhaps the 10 days of rest between his final regular season start and Game 2 gave Flaherty's arm additional time to recover — and he's had another six days off since that outing.
Still, I'm inclined to bet Flaherty over 1.5 Walks against the Mets (-150), with his outs prop juiced to Over 15.5 (-125) after the Dodgers' aggressive bullpen usage to finish off the Padres in the NLDS.
Flaherty's walk rate has increased as his velocity has dipped, and the Padres were overly aggressive against him, chasing their way out of five three-ball counts in his last start.
