The first Sunday of the MLB season is upon is, and you know what that means: day games galore.
Sunday afternoon is jam-packed with 14 games. The only evening game, of course, is Sunday Night Baseball between the Phillies and Rangers.
Before that, there's plenty of action and plenty of value to be found. Our analysts have targeted Pirates vs. Reds and White Sox vs. Astros as the games where they were able to find the best betting value.
These are our best bets from the MLB slate on Sunday, April 2nd.
Sunday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pirates vs. Reds
Sunday, April 2 1:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (-105)  |
By D.J. James
Vince Velasquez may wear the crown for the worst starting pitcher in the league come season’s end. The Reds did not tout the best hitting against right-handers last season, but they still have some power in the middle of the order.
Jake Fraley held a .330+ xwOBA off of righties in 2022. They also added Wil Myers, who has a career 106 wRC+ off of righties. Jonathan India has a 111 wRC+ of of right-handers in his career, too.
Velasquez ranked in the first percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 10th percentile in Hard Hit Rate in 2022. He also ranked in the first percentage in barrel percentage. He posted similar peripherals in 2021.
Although he mainly pitched as a long reliever for the White Sox in 2022, he did not have any appearances over five innings after mid-May, so he likely is not going deep into this ballgame, even if he somehow proves moderately effective.
In that case, Pittsburgh had a bullpen xFIP of 4.44 in 2022. Following a likely short start with a litany of relievers who cannot hold their own weight regardless of who their opponent is will usually yield runs for the opponent.
Pick: Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (-105)
White Sox vs. Astros
Sunday, April 2 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mike Clevinger Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148)  |
By Nick Shlain
The White Sox didn’t make many changes to their pitching staff this past offseason, but they brought in Mike Clevinger to round out their rotation. Clevinger is coming off of a down season with the San Diego Padres where he had his worst K/9 (7.16) and strikeout percentage (18%) of his six year career.
One of my favorite bets of the day Sunday is Clevinger to go under 4.5 strikeouts at -148 on FanDuel. While Clevinger’s career strikeout percentage is a respectable 25%, my projections see him continuing to struggle like he did last year with a projected 19% strikeout percentage this year.
Not only is he trending downward in that regard, but the matchup for Clevinger couldn’t be worse with the Houston Astros on the docket. The Astros have just three hitters in their projected lineup who had at least a 20% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers last year and as a collective lineup they strike out just 18% of the time.
Clevinger threw his fastball the most of any of his pitches last year at 36%, but only was able to get batters to swing and miss at 21% of those offerings. The Astros lineup is toward the bottom of the league in strikeouts because of their organizational philosophy of hunting fastballs.
Houston simply isn’t going to chase Clevinger’s other pitches and it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to beat the Astros with his fastball.
Add it all up and this is a great spot to take the under even with the odds juiced to almost -150.
Pick: Mike Clevinger Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-148)
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