Monday's MLB picks and predictions come via the Payoff Pitch Podcast, where our analysts break down their favorite bets from the MLB slate every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday.
Today's MLB expert picks and best bets feature picks for for Blue Jays vs. Royals and Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.
Listen to the latest episode of Payoff Pitch and read below for their MLB picks and predictions for Monday, April 22.
MLB Picks & Predictions For Monday, April 22
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | Blue Jays ML (-110) |
  | 7:45 p.m. | D-Backs F5 ML (-105) + D-Backs ML (-105) |
Blue Jays ML (-110) at Royals
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Yusei Kikuchi has been really good to start the season for the Blue Jays.
He has a 2.08 ERA and 2.66 expected-ERA with a strikeout rate over 12 per nine innings. Where he has really increased is in his ground ball rate. He is locating his fastball much better and getting more grounders out of his secondary pitches and is able to find roughly every part of the zone now with a multitude of pitches. If he can correct his home run problem he can be a really good starting pitcher.
He is taking on Brady Singer for the Royals who isn't great. I know he has a low ERA to begin the season but his expected-ERA is closer to 4. If we look at his pitches, he has an average slider by stuff+ rankings and his secondary pitches, the slider and the fastball are both under 75 stuff+. It is only a matter of time especially facing a lineup like the Blue Jays.
I have Kikuchi over Singer in this matchup and I will take the Blue Jays bullpen over a Royals' pen that straight up stinks. They have the worst stuff+ by far in the MLB and their closer, James McArthur is the only guy with a plus rating above 100. I have the Blue Jays projected around 140, so I like them at -110.
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Diamondbacks F5 (-105) + Diamondbacks ML (-105) at Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Brandon Pfaadt is a pitcher I am going to be targeting this season. While his career ERA is 5.63, he has an expected FIP of 4.3 which shows us he has been unlucky to start his career.
The pitching metrics love him showing excellent command with a good slider and an arsenal above average pitches. He has tremendous upside because of his command and has already brought his walk rate down from 6% last year to 3% in 2024. The home run ball is what has been detrimental to Pfaadt thus far, but an issue that Lance Lynn has struggled with for years as well.
Lynn has allowed 48 home runs in his last 36 starts, around 2.11 home runs per nine innings. I think ultimately, Pfaadt is the better pitcher, more upside and a kid who gained some postseason experience in Arizona's World Series run last year. Lynn is getting older with average command and no "out" pitch in his arsenal anymore. Arizona's lineup will make significantly more contact against a defense with a huge disadvantage. I like the Diamondbacks to lead after five and take this one tonight.
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