Another Monday in April means another chance to check in with our "Payoff Pitch" crew for their Monday MLB picks.
Action Network's Sean Zerillo and Jim Turvey broke down two of their best bets for Monday, including a total pick in Rays vs. Brewers and a player prop in Pirates vs. A's.
Check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below, and continue reading for their best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | Under 8.5 |
  | 9:40 p.m. | Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Under 8.5
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
This is a pseudo-bullpen game for the Brewers with Bryce Wilson pitching because he never makes it through five innings.
After a couple of blowout losses to the Yankees, the Brewers kept most of their top relievers fresh. The Rays' bullpen has struggled this year, but their high-leverage relievers are also rested for tonight.
I give Milwaukee the bullpen advantage and a slight lineup and defensive advantage, but Tampa Bay has the starting pitching advantage with Ryan Pepiot on the mound. He's showing signs of breaking out this season.
He's only using three pitches but has five that are popping above-average offerings and has a 115 Stuff+ rating with his full arsenal. He appears to be on the progression of the Rays' next version of Tyler Glasnow in terms of becoming an elite starting pitcher, and his metrics indicate so.
I like him to keep the scoring low against the Brewers' bats.
I have this projected closer to 7.5, so I would take it down to 8 at -110.
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Pirates
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Jim Turvey
Esteury Ruiz has quietly had an outstanding hitting season for a guy who's mostly known for his stolen base prowess.
Last year, he was basically dink-and-dunk and beat out grounders. His contact has been much better this year. He has made improvements in barrel rate, exit velocity, launch angle, and that makes sense considering his xSLG has gone from .316 to .486.
All of his numbers show he's a solid hitter now.
He has always been better against lefties, and with better contact, I like looking at him in some different markets. He's facing Bailey Falter, who always seems to be due for regression but somehow beats it. He isn't an outstanding lefty and won't put up zeros across the board. Falter relies on soft contact, and for a guy like Ruiz, he just needs a chance to reach base.
Ruiz will be able to put the ball in play, so my favorite line is over 1.5 total bases.
