The MLB Division Series rolls into Sunday, October 6, with two NLDS Game 2s: Mets vs Phillies and Padres vs Dodgers.
Our baseball betting experts are all over the Sunday NLDS slate with MLB picks, props and predictions for Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez and a moneyline pick for Padres vs Dodgers. Check out Sunday MLB best bets below.
MLB Picks, Props, Predictions, Best Bets Today — 10/6
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Sunday NLDS games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:08 p.m. | |
  | 8:03 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Phillies Best Bet: Trends Like This Cristopher Sanchez Prop
By Tony Sartori
The Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to left-hander Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2, and he should be a good candidate to back. Over 31 regular season starts, Sanchez posted an 11-9 record with a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Sanchez also owns strong advanced metrics — he ranked in the 70th percentile or better in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, I am going to back Sanchez in the strikeout prop market as he ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total that Sanchez has surpassed in five of his last seven starts. This success could continue against the New York Mets, a team he is 2-0 against over the past five meetings with a 2.81 ERA.
Sanchez recorded five or more strikeouts in four of those five outings.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 | play to -120)
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Sean Zerillo's Padres vs Dodgers Best Bet: Reason to Doubt Jack Flaherty
By Sean Zerillo
A number of teams balked at Jack Flaherty's medicals at this past year's trade deadline, and going to the Dodgers, who have not been able to keep any of their starting pitchers healthy, seemed like a red flag at the time.
Flaherty, however, was among the best pitchers in MLB through August (2.78 xFIP and 26.3% K-BB%), but September was his worst month (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%).
His fastball and slider velocity (which averaged 93.5 mph and 84.8 mph, respectively, through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season. That represented his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017.
After downgrading Flaherty, I also show value on the moneyline of the Padres (projected +115; bet to +125), who have a potentially severe bullpen advantage over Los Angeles (2nd in xFIP and K-BB%, 1st in pitch modeling metrics in the second half; Dodgers are below average in all four categories).
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+136 | Play to +125)
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