The last MLB Division Series game takes place on Saturday, October 12, when the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians play Game 5 of the ALDS. Our experts are all over this AL Central clash with two MLB picks, predictions and best bets.
Find their two MLB props for Tarik Skubal and Andres Gimenez below.
MLB Prop Picks, Predictions & Best Bets — 10/12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:08 p.m. | |
| 1:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Tigers vs Guardians Best Bet: Fade This Cleveland Hitter
By D.J. James
A fielding-first second baseman, Andrés Giménez is a Gold Glove Award winner for a reason.
He only struck out 15.3% of the time over the regular season, but he also only walked 4.1% of the time. He will be tasked with trying to get on base against Triple Crown winner and likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
Skubal only walks 4.6% of batters while striking out over 30%. Based off this, Giménez is likely not going to walk.
In addition, Giménez will keep the ball on the ground (71.4% in the postseason), while Skubal ranked in the 74th percentile in ground-ball rate. Giménez does not hit the ball hard while Skubal holds a sub-87.5 mph Average Exit Velocity and 84th percentile Hard-Hit Rate. Giménez also only hit .239 against lefties this season.
The Tigers relief staff only holds a 21.6% strikeout rate in the playoffs with a 6.1% walk rate. Again, Giménez will likely not be walking his way on base, but he could make more contact with the Tigers’ relievers.
Take Giménez’s under on hits from 0.5 (+120 to -110).
Pick: Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 Hits (+120 | Play to +110)
Tony Sartori's Tarik Skubal Prop Bet
By Tony Sartori
Here's a hot take: The best pitcher in baseball is going to pitch well in the biggest game of his career.
Now that we got that out of the way, let's dive into why I believe Tarik Skubal will record six or more strikeouts in this winner-take-all Game 5.
First, as I just mentioned, this is win or go home for both teams. With that in mind, Skubal will remain in this game as long as physically possible, and in what is expected to be a close, low-scoring game, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he goes eight or even nine innings.
That should be more than enough time for the AL Cy Young Award winner-to-be to collect at least six punchouts considering that he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and 91st percentile in strikeout rate.
Skubal tossed seven scoreless frames against the Guardians in Game 1, surrendering just three hits while accumulating eight strikeouts. Now he is in a position where he is likely to go longer, and we only need him to reach six strikeouts.
Furthermore, this current Guardians team possesses a 25.6% strikeout rate and 24.2% whiff rate through 86 combined career plate appearances against Skubal.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good price at -148 at FanDuel, a line that is seven cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-148 | Play to -155)
