The stretch run of the MLB season rolls on with a 15-game slate on Friday, September 20.
Naturally, our baseball experts are all over the action with four MLB picks, props, predictions and best bets for Blue Jays vs Rays, Twins vs Red Sox and Rockies vs Dodgers. Find out why they love David Festa and hate Kyle Freeland, and which moneylines and over/unders have value.
MLB Picks, Props, Predictions, Best Bets Today — Friday, Sept. 20
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Justin Perri's Blue Jays vs Rays Best Bet: Jays F5 Moneyline
By Justin Perri
While both of these teams are all but eliminated from playoff contention, I still think we can pick on Tyler Alexander, who's mostly a bulk relief guy. This will be his eighth start of his season and in the last month of play, he's posted a 7.06 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP.
Across the 21 innings in that span, he's only earned a 9.2% swinging strike rate, and the expected numbers don't give confidence either at a 6.18 xERA, according to Pitcher List.
Alexander's been worse at home this season, throwing to a 6.58 ERA at The Trop compared to 4.47 on the road. He simply gives up too many hits and throws his stuff very slow.
Four innings of that should be solid for any offense to get a lead. Plus, Jose Berrios is one win behind Tarik Skubal for the AL lead at 17, so there might be some extra effort in the clubhouse for him to have a solid lead against a beatable pitcher. Berrios has kept opponents to one run or fewer in three straight starts.
Take the F5 ML on the Blue Jays.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 Moneyline (-115) | Play to -130
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Alex Kolodziej's Twins vs Red Sox Best Bet: Weather Points to Over/Under
We can glean a ton from weather forecasts, especially at this juncture of the season. Weather is important, so much to the extent a PRO System pinged the Twins–Red Sox under as a smart play based on past key data.
Fenway Parks boasts one of the best parks for creating runs, but it’s tough to ignore windy conditions matching the PRO model parameters.
Also, Fenway is expecting some rain on Friday as temperatures dip, which turns out to be a pretty huge buzzkill in September and October, in outdoor venues.
The stadium forecast checks the boxes for the AL clash Friday, with winds blowing in at the appropriate ranges.
Pick: Under 9 (-105) | Play to -110
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Cody Goggin's Twins vs Red Sox Best Bet: Festa Strikeout Prop
By Cody Goggin
David Festa will be taking the mound for the Twins tonight. The 6-foot-6 rookie has a Stuff+ and Location+ of 101 this season.
Festa has a 5.07 ERA, but his advanced metrics are more favorable (4.09 xERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.57 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA). He has 66 strikeouts in 55 innings, which equates to an 85th percentile strikeout rate among qualified pitchers.
He has a walk rate near league average, but has allowed some harder contact. Festa has a 53rd percentile hard-hit rate, 29th percentile barrel rate and 33rd percentile average exit velocity.
Tonight, Festa's taking on the Red Sox, who have been hard pressed to produce anything on offense. Over the last 30 days, this Boston offense has a wRC+ of 72, which is tied with the Angels for the worst mark in the league — and one spot below the lowly White Sox. Boston has the third-highest strikeout rate in the league over this time period and the worst walk rate in the league.
I like taking Festa to go over 5.5 strikeouts as he has done in seven of his 12 starts so far. Boston’s offense has been a wreck and I think that Festa is good enough to take advantage of this if he pitches deep enough into the game.
Pick: David Festa Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) | Play to -135
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Tony Sartori's Rockies vs Dodgers Best Bet: Fade Kyle Freeland
By Tony Sartori
The Rockies hand the ball to left-hander Kyle Freeland on Friday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate.
Freeland has struggled this season, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.89 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 19 starts. His underlying metrics are equally poor as the southpaw ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, we are going to fade Freeland in the prop market as he ranks in the third percentile in whiff rate and 12th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total the left-hander has failed to surpass in four of his past seven starts.
These woes are likely to continue against the Dodgers, a team that boasts a .263 BA, .483 SLG and .351 wOBA through 236 combined career plate appearances against Freeland. He also is 5-10 through 23 career starts against the Dodgers with a 4.75 ERA.
Pick: Kyle Freelander Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112) | Play to +105
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